March Break!

Friday Fracas!

The Markets: Who is buying this market? Trump is about to trigger an international trade war; both the European and Japanese central banks are planning to end their versions of QE; all while interest rates are on the rise, everywhere. Stock markets should be tanking worldwide. They will. Stay tuned.

Trump!: Hope Hicks walked out of a nine hour grilling by the Senate committee looking into possible collusion, and resigned. She had previously met with the FBI to answer their many questions, and has openly admitted to telling “little white lies” on behalf of Trump. She would only walk out of a meeting and do something like immediately resign if she strongly suspected that she was about to be indicted and she did not want to be part of the administration when that happens. 

Hicks worked with Trump personally to craft the cover story for the June, 2016 meeting between Trump Jr., Kushner and Manafort and a purported representative of the Russian state, the point of which was to subvert a US presidential election. Hmmm…can you say “accessory after the fact to a conspiracy”? If anyone will sing like a canary, it may be a woman who apparently kept detailed notes of her entire time with Trump. Get used to Hope Hicks. You will be hearing about this person in her many different guises for the next 25 years.

Blue Jays: They are slightly under .500 in Spring training, but the fact is that they do look pretty good! Martin and Travis look healthy. The bullpen looks excellent. Granderson can contribute. Sanchez seems to be back to form, and Happ and Estrada also look very good. If they stay healthy, Stoman’s shoulder issue is a “nothing burger”, and Garcia can pitch 200 innings to even a 4.25 ERA, then this team should at least be competitive – maybe third in the AL East, with a shot at a second wild card? OMG - I think I am actually optimistic! Go Jays Go!

Ontario: Elliott will take the PC leadership 54% to Ford’s 46% this weekend. If this leadership race had dragged on for even another week, Ford would have signed up enough people to win. He will not run to be an MPP – it is “Premier or bust” for this clown. Elliott will then get a majority government in June, with the following results…PC – 69 seats (46%); NDP – 31 seats (29%); Liberals –25 seats (23%). Wynne will be on the board of directors of Ontario Power Generation by the end of the year making six figures.

Happy Friday!

Day Job!

Post-PDAC 2018 Update.

The stuff I sold first thing this am is up 40% today.  The stuff I bought in its place is down 20%.

I'm holding on to my day job.

PDAC, 2018

I attended the Prospector and Developers Association Convention in Toronto again this year. Observations follow.

It was busy, and people were generally upbeat. I talked to fewer companies this year, but my sense was that more of them were financed and moving ahead with their projects. Only one had truly disturbing news - they were dumped a few minutes ago.

As always, there was some desperation, and I heard a few tall tales as well. 

One non-listed company expressed a preference to do all financing with hundreds of small shareholders rather the "Bay Street Boys" and those "Vancouver Promoters". 

Hmmm....so rather than have a professional promoter raise tens of millions of dollars for an IPO, taking a 5% - 7% fee, this fellow would rather manage the expectations of hundreds of individual shareholders, and run this company like 50 Amish dudes at a barn raising. "Don't try to be cute! Just drill next to the old Gold mine, English!" 

OK, maybe even he believes this tale, or maybe he has already approached the money men, and they said "not on your life!". I have their name. When they list, I'll be a believer.

Another told a tale of the $20 Million that lenders were lining up to give him for a mill to process Cobalt - they were just comparing terms. He had previously built a mill, and one should be up and running in less than a year.  

All good, but then he mentioned that for the first three years the mill would process Gold-bearing ore from Quebec until the debt to build the mill had been paid off.  

WTF?

Why build a mill to process Cobalt if you immediately use it to process Gold for three years? Hmm...maybe you're not ready to mine Cobalt? 

And if many lenders just can't wait to lend $20 Million for this rock solid investment...well...why haven't they lent the money yet? 

Maybe this is 100% legitimate. Two close friends are in this company. I'll pass on my concerns. After chatting with them, I may even buy some!

Then there were my companies.

One has excellent silver properties in Nevada, but they don't have access to a supply of water necessary for drilling. The issue of water access is subject to litigation, so they may just drill a water hole. 

I talked to the IR lady. She was earnest, and I felt their pain. I was a litigator in a previous life, and know how long litigation can take. I have also been to Nevada - water is a tad hard to come by there even with a drill. As noted, I dumped the position this am.

Another of my companies had an empty booth. No displays...no literature available...no maps. They explained that Canada Customs does not work on Sundays, so they could not get their material in from Nevada. I noticed that everyone else, including companies from Africa, Chile and Mexico had their booths ready.  

Here is the website for Canada Customs at Pearson International. You'll notice that they are open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.

https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/do-rb/offices-bureaux/853-eng.html

I have a buddy back home who has a position in this particular company as well. I want to chat with him before dumping. If a management team can't set up a booth, how the hell can they run a mine?

I did manage to walk through Toronto, and to marvel at the changes since I moved to Ottawa in 1995. 

The condos have sprouted like so many raised hands at a memorial for Kim Jong il...higher and higher, like their lives depended on it!

Does anyone in Toronto have a coffee maker at home? There is now a coffee shop on virtually every single street corner.

The money was swamping out the poverty for a while - Yonge Street was quickly being converted from head shops to condo heaven, but I have noticed that the grime, and no doubt the crime, is slowly creeping back in. You can't keep a bad man down for long!

Finally, I took the train. 

Long ago, when I was in university, I would go to the "Choo-Choos" pub in the train station, as it was the only pub that was open on Sundays in Toronto. I have not had a drink in over two decades now, but I decided to take a stroll down what I thought would be something akin to Bad Memory Lane to see how the old, sad pub is doing. The pub is gone. Today, it is The Detox Market. How appropriate.

I saw old friends and family, and was glad to have done so...the primary reason for my trips!

Until next year!

Trump Impeachment Update

Gates has entered pleas of guilty to a number of offences, including conspiracy against the USA in return for full cooperation with the Mueller investigation, especially against Manafort. Many of the charges against Gates have been dropped. 

The key issue in all of this is the June, 2016 meeting between Manafort, Kushner, Trump Jr., and purported representatives of the Russian state, where the stated purpose of the meeting was to have the Russians hand over damaging information about Clinton in an attempt to sway the US presidential election. These three men went to that meeting, and did receive and review information.

Bannon's response - this was treason, and why dd they not just call the police? Exactly. 

This was obviously a conspiracy against the USA. What Mueller needs in order to lay the charges that will sink Trump is someone who was at that meeting to testify as to what actually happened - rest assured that we do not have the full story yet - and to testify as to what Trump knew about it.

With Gates having thrown in his lot with the Feds, there is now massive pressure on Manafort to turn as well or face would could be years if not decades in the slammer.

Manafort was at that meeting.

Stay tuned.

The Toronto Senators???

Are the Ottawa Senators headed to Toronto?!

The idea is seemingly preposterous - Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment, which owns the Toronto Maple Leafs, has a veto on any NHL team moving within 50 miles of Toronto. They would have to agree to a new team locating to Toronto, and they have always said "no".

The most recent attempt to locate another NHL team in Toronto was almost ten years ago when Jim Balsillie, who made bundles of money as the CEO of BlackBerry maker Research In Motion, tried to buy the Phoenix Coyotes out of bankruptcy, conditional on approval from the NHL to move them to Hamilton, Ontario. That bid collapsed when the NHL refused to approve the move.

Ten years later, we have the Ottawa Senators in the basement of the NHL standings, and about to spend billions of dollars on a new arena and civic development in LeBreton Flats in downtown Ottawa. That this should happen seems to be a "no brainer", as the Senator's existing facility is 25 kms out of town, where access has always been an issue. A move downtown, which the Senators received approval to do after a competitive bid, should improve the team's fortunes. It should also remake the fortunes of the owner Eugene Melnyk, who has complained bitterly about the lack of attendance at the present facility, including the inability to sellout the building in the playoffs last year.

But is something else afoot?

Melnyk actually said that relocation of the Senators was a possibility at the NHL Classic outdoor game held in Ottawa on December 16, 2017. Specifically, he compared his franchise to a grocery store, and noted that if you have one and you have no customers, but the store two blocks away has a line up, "where are you going to put you store?" Most people have forgotten these comments, especially as the question of trading Erik Karlsson has dominated the discussion about the future of the Senators.

But consider these ominous signs...

Melnyk has essentially stopped talking to Ottawa sports radio and tv broadcasters. He is now doing all his interviews in Toronto, where he lives.

Melnyk has taken over the presidency of the Ottawa Senators, and seems poised to try to run the team from Toronto.

Finally, Melnyk just fired Ton Anselmi, who had been brought in for the expressed purpose of negotiating the LeBreton Flats deal with the National Capital Commission which owns the land, for the Senators. Right now, it appears that the person negotiating this deal is Melnyk himself, who appears to be planning to do so from Toronto.

Melnyk and others in the Senators organization confirmed their support for the LeBreton Flats plan in the days after Melnyk's comments in December, 2017.  However, what has happened since contradicts this assurance. To confirm...here is NO evidence that negotiations are underway between Melnyk and the NHL and Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment (MLSE) which would both have to approve a move by the Senators to Toronto.

But let's explore this further...

Melnyk is about to spend what could be hundreds of millions of dollars of his own money as part of the LeBreton Flats development, which has an estimated price tag of $3.5 Billion. He must know that the Toronto Maple Leafs are worth about $1.4 Billion US, while the Senators are only worth $420 Million US - about $1 Billion US less.

There is no question that Toronto could support two NHL franchises. There is also no question that literally the first second that a post-relocation "Toronto Senators" team started to play in Toronto, that team would be worth hundreds of millions of dollars more than the Ottawa Senators will likely ever be worth.  More than that, it is almost impossible to conceive of a second Toronto NHL team ever having trouble selling tickets like the Senators are having now. A move to Toronto would increase both the value of the team, and its future revenues.

Melnyk is a businessman. The ambit that would add most value to his team is not the LeBreton Flats development, but a move to Toronto, where there is a "grocery store" that always sells out.

Moving it there means getting MLSE and the NHL on side. This would obviously mean paying them enough for them to agree. With the prospect of an increase in value of the team of literally hundreds of millions of dollars simply from moving it to Toronto, Melnyk may think he has a source of funds to work with to make this happen.

To muse....if MLSE were offered $200 Million to relinquish their veto, and the NHL were offered $300 Million to spread around to the other NHL teams, would they support a move of the Senators to Toronto?

Again - he actually mused about moving the team only two months ago. And much of what he has done since points straight at Toronto. In life, things that are considered impossible are only impossible until they aren't....and then they may seem obvious.

Stay tuned.

The Meaning of the 13 Indictments

Wow! The FBI was on to these people for months. They had their personal e-mails...they knew exactly who they were, and the criminals apparently had no clue the FBI was on to them until late last year.

These are not your normal run-of-the mill baddies. They are paid-for, financed and aided Russian trolls...they have the power of the Russian state behind them.

The attempt by Russia to influence the outcome of the US election was obviously more than just an attempt to get Trump elected. It was an electronic showdown between these two countries...who has the better IT counterintelligence network?

This is the real game. Whoever rules the Internet rules the world. It is the "high ground" of the 21st century.

They have been pushing us, hard. There have been numerous attacks on Western IT infrastructure from the likes of Russia and North Korea in recent years.

With these indictments, we get a wee glimpse at just how good the American IT counter-intelligence network actually is. Obviously, this is just a glimpse....they can no doubt do way more than what this indictment revealed.

And so, the primary lesson for the world's bad guys from these indictments should be that the USA clearly has the advantage when it comes to using the World Wide Web as a weapon. The baddies can inconvenience the USA and others. OK, but these indictments should make clear that the USA can likely destroy their IT infrastructure any time they want.

Again, the Russian-aided trolls had NO CLUE that the FBI was on to them. No doubt the Russians are now wondering what else and who else is the USA watching, all the time, without their knowledge?

From a geopolitical perspective, these indictments are one massive "F&&k You!" to Vladimir Putin and his whole rotten regime. Good...it's about time. If this is what the American "deep state" does for a living, just keep it up.

I suspect the attacks on Western IT infrastructure will subside for a while. And every single North Korean troll is taking the day off...

USA! USA! USA!

The State of the Blog

Friday Fracas…

1. The Markets. All historic indicators have been suggesting for a few years now that stock markets are overvalued – the Q Ratio, the Shillers P/E, etc. Interest rates are going up, and stock markets finally started to pull back last week (My timing was off for at least a year…as evidenced by my short positions getting killed!) 

Usually, bubbles go from initiation, to build-up, to euphoria, to crisis then to final collapse. The crisis stage sees prices waffle up and down in a herky-jerky motion as Greed and Fear take turns dominating investor sentiments. Welcome to the crisis. We have entered the “yo-yo” phase of this bubble, where prices will move up and down until we have a collapse, which I think will be in three to six months.(Note – house prices in Toronto are up about 17% in 30 days – rising over half a percent a day.) 

2. Mueller. The bombs have stared to drop again!. Expect any of the 13 Russians who face indictment by the Grand Jury to roll the second that Mueller's G-Men get their hands on them...assuming they do not come down with the ever fatal "Putin Flu" first.  Also expect Bannon to become even more vocal about the nature of the June, 2016, meeting between Manafort, Trump Jr, Kushner and the Russians. The word “treason” will start to become current. Also watch for select Republicans to start to turn on Trump...they got tax cuts, and no longer need him.

3. Florida Shootings. I must say that I love America…not as much as my own country, but Americans are wonderful people, and their country, in spite of its issues, is simply awesome. One difference between Canada and America is that America loves its guns. One price of this love affair is enduring mass murder on a regular basis. When will we start to mock the cliché of heavily armed SWAT and other police combing an area in the hours after a massacre – as if there is anything to be gained other than to put on a show for the media? And when will people start to note that, beyond the problem of easy access to assault weapons, America may have a cultural problem – a culture that, for a tiny minority of its citizens, is informed and motivated by mass murder? (Note – The Swiss let hundreds of thousands of their citizens take assault rifles home as part of their national defence strategy – when was the last time you heard of a mass murder there?) Sadly, the next one is already being planned…

4. North Korea. Will Kim Jong-un launch an ICBM on the last day of the Olympics in South Korea?