Hope Hicks has been hired by the news outfit at Fox as head of Public Relations!!
This is a great job...why may she have been hired?
Hicks has admitted to telling lies for Trump. One would assume this means to the FBI. She is obviously a target of the Mueller Probe.
Hick's lawyers have been paid by the Republican Party up to now. The bill was up to half-a-million dollars as of the Spring of thus year.
But are they still paying?
As noted on this blog, after Manafort flipped, everyone's political calculus changed. It seems obvious that something dire is heading Trump's way, and I suspect that the Republicans, understanding that they may be on a sinking ship, have started abandoning that ship like the rats that may of them are.
I think this means they may no longer be paying Hick's legal bills. It is easy to figure out what happened after that.
Trump needs Hicks on side, which means she has to continue to have very good legal representation by lawyers who will work with his lawyers. These people are very expensive, so one would think that she got the job because Trump asked his Fox buddies to employ her so as to provide with her enough cash to pay for her legal representation. Of course, being "Fair and Balanced" they would oblige!
Ultimately, I think Hicks' new job is very bad news for Trump as it signals that his protectors in the Republican Party are now having second thoughts.
As I have also noted here, get used to Hope Hicks. Out of everyone in Trump's White House, she will be the survivor of this debacle. You will be hearing about her for the next generation, at least.
Wednesday, 10 October 2018
Monday, 8 October 2018
For The Defence?
Trump's lawyers have crowed about having joint defence agreements with upwards of thirty people, including people who have flipped, with those agreements continuing even after they flipped.
These agreements allow lawyers to share information and plan joint strategies. It allows Trump's lawyers to know what Mueller is asking those who have been interviewed by the FBI, and what he has asked of those persons who have flipped.
This is unusual in criminal defence, where such agreements are usually kept private, and where they stop after someone flips. But it is 100% consistent for Trump, as he sees his lawyers as legal hit men. It seems obvious that his lawyers have these agreements, in part to coerce others into not cooperating, and even try to have influence over them after they flip.
This is an exceptionally dangerous practice for the lawyers in question, as any attempt to influence witnesses after they flip could be seen as obstruction. They could end up on the stand themselves, as solicitor-client privilege may be no defence if the lawyer steps outside of their role as adviser, and becomes an active participant in witness tampering.
Some of Trump's lawyers have moved on from his office - wise indeed.
Would Giuliani still have that smug, know-it-all smile if he were to be answering questions while under oath, and on the stand at the trial of some of his clients?
These agreements allow lawyers to share information and plan joint strategies. It allows Trump's lawyers to know what Mueller is asking those who have been interviewed by the FBI, and what he has asked of those persons who have flipped.
This is unusual in criminal defence, where such agreements are usually kept private, and where they stop after someone flips. But it is 100% consistent for Trump, as he sees his lawyers as legal hit men. It seems obvious that his lawyers have these agreements, in part to coerce others into not cooperating, and even try to have influence over them after they flip.
This is an exceptionally dangerous practice for the lawyers in question, as any attempt to influence witnesses after they flip could be seen as obstruction. They could end up on the stand themselves, as solicitor-client privilege may be no defence if the lawyer steps outside of their role as adviser, and becomes an active participant in witness tampering.
Some of Trump's lawyers have moved on from his office - wise indeed.
Would Giuliani still have that smug, know-it-all smile if he were to be answering questions while under oath, and on the stand at the trial of some of his clients?
Wednesday, 3 October 2018
The Waiting is the Hardest Part
There is lots of contrary advice on-line these days - "how to play in this booming market and win, win, win!", versus "...this is almost the end"!
I usually ignore this chatter, and look at a few simple indicators which are provided for you to consider, again...
http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2018/10/02/the-q-ratio-and-market-valuation-september-update
These indicators have indicated what they have indicated for a few years now. They will eventually be proven 100% correct.
Definition of "patience" - "...the capacity to accept or tolerate delay, trouble, or suffering without getting angry or upset."
The guy who wrote that definition never bet against a bubble!
I usually ignore this chatter, and look at a few simple indicators which are provided for you to consider, again...
http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2018/10/02/the-q-ratio-and-market-valuation-september-update
These indicators have indicated what they have indicated for a few years now. They will eventually be proven 100% correct.
Definition of "patience" - "...the capacity to accept or tolerate delay, trouble, or suffering without getting angry or upset."
The guy who wrote that definition never bet against a bubble!
Tuesday, 2 October 2018
Kavanaugh and Mueller
Trump has called in the FBI to look into the Kavanaugh matter. This is a potentially dire development for Mueller's probe.
Trump's White House is directing the length of the Kavanaugh FBI probe, and even tried to direct who the FBI would be permitted to interview and what evidence it may consider in conducting its probe. It is obvious that Trump is testing out ability to manage the Mueller probe here. (Has Rosenstein effectively stepped aside, allowing Trump's minions to take over?)
No matter what may be the results of the Kavanaugh probe, expect this development to embolden Trump in his handling of the FBI, especially after the mid-term elections in November.
It may be time for Mueller to issue his first public statement, designed to make it politically impossible for Trump to attempt to shut down the investigation.
"When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die." It is just about "go time" for Mueller.
Trump's White House is directing the length of the Kavanaugh FBI probe, and even tried to direct who the FBI would be permitted to interview and what evidence it may consider in conducting its probe. It is obvious that Trump is testing out ability to manage the Mueller probe here. (Has Rosenstein effectively stepped aside, allowing Trump's minions to take over?)
No matter what may be the results of the Kavanaugh probe, expect this development to embolden Trump in his handling of the FBI, especially after the mid-term elections in November.
It may be time for Mueller to issue his first public statement, designed to make it politically impossible for Trump to attempt to shut down the investigation.
"When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die." It is just about "go time" for Mueller.
Kavanaugh
Powerful people are often subjected to a range of accusations, especially allegations of sexual misconduct decades after events supposedly occurred. Most are truthful, and some are not.
Women will often wait decades before coming forward with tales of abuse, with their need to come forward triggered by some person, place, thing or change in life that gives them the courage to speak out. Their stories are true.
When allegations of abuse are made, which allegedly occurred long ago, one simple approach is to wait for developments before rushing to judgement. Abusers usually have multiple victims, and when one of their victims comes out with their tale of abuse, this usually helps others to come forward as well.
And so, we need to wait a while.
There are now three women accusing Kavanaugh of abuse now. He is on the bubble. The allegations range from assault to that he may have exposed himself. A few more, and he needs to be rejected.
Note that he has a right to be assumed innocent until proven guilty...at a criminal trial. Some are mentioning this in reference to Kananaugh's situation. There will be no trial here, as this is not a criminal law process. But the comparison is misleading.
This is about the confirmation of a future justice of the Supreme Court of the United States. The standard for approval must go way beyond that of a base criminal law test. He must meet or beat a standard equivalent to the highest ethical and legal standards of any person going into public office in the USA.
If I had a vote, we would be looking for a replacement.
Women will often wait decades before coming forward with tales of abuse, with their need to come forward triggered by some person, place, thing or change in life that gives them the courage to speak out. Their stories are true.
When allegations of abuse are made, which allegedly occurred long ago, one simple approach is to wait for developments before rushing to judgement. Abusers usually have multiple victims, and when one of their victims comes out with their tale of abuse, this usually helps others to come forward as well.
And so, we need to wait a while.
There are now three women accusing Kavanaugh of abuse now. He is on the bubble. The allegations range from assault to that he may have exposed himself. A few more, and he needs to be rejected.
Note that he has a right to be assumed innocent until proven guilty...at a criminal trial. Some are mentioning this in reference to Kananaugh's situation. There will be no trial here, as this is not a criminal law process. But the comparison is misleading.
This is about the confirmation of a future justice of the Supreme Court of the United States. The standard for approval must go way beyond that of a base criminal law test. He must meet or beat a standard equivalent to the highest ethical and legal standards of any person going into public office in the USA.
If I had a vote, we would be looking for a replacement.
Monday, 24 September 2018
Been Wrong for Two + Years!
I have predicted a significant stock market pull-back for over two years, with no such result!
I have been short, and missed the Trumpian "Greatest Economy Ever!!!"
The predictions have been based on the Shiller P/E Ratio, which has been signalling "bubble" for years - see here...
http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/
It has also been based on the Q Ratio, which has signalled the same thing - see here...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2018/09/05/the-q-ratio-and-market-valuation-august-update
The fact that the USA started raising interest rates about 2.5 years ago was what I thought would be the signal for a market pull back.
Basically, I agree with some writers who think that we do not really have business cycles anymore. What we have are more like central bank cycles, where the economy is a planned thing, and where rising rates mean bankers have decided that it is time for a slowing economy and market pull back.
I did not think the economy and markets would have been as resilient as they have been. The Trump tax cut which added hundreds of billions of dollars to stock buy backs this year also helped keep the good times going.
And so....what to do?
The indicators above cannot tell you when, they only tell you what. The US Fed will raise rates again this week, and the tax cut cash for buy backs must run out at some point. I think we had a precursor of what is to come in February, when the DOW dropped 1000 points in a single day.
But staying patient is hard when you are on the wrong side of a trade. And, compounding this is the fact that I not only see a pull back, but also significant stagnation after that, which will crush passive investors. I may be the only one out there predicting this!
Please see previous blog here...
https://mewetree.blogspot.com/2018/08/different-this-time.html
Predicting a market pull-back also feels unseemly, as this will hurt tens of millions of people.
And yet, I see no reason to change course.
I have been short, and missed the Trumpian "Greatest Economy Ever!!!"
The predictions have been based on the Shiller P/E Ratio, which has been signalling "bubble" for years - see here...
http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/
It has also been based on the Q Ratio, which has signalled the same thing - see here...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2018/09/05/the-q-ratio-and-market-valuation-august-update
The fact that the USA started raising interest rates about 2.5 years ago was what I thought would be the signal for a market pull back.
Basically, I agree with some writers who think that we do not really have business cycles anymore. What we have are more like central bank cycles, where the economy is a planned thing, and where rising rates mean bankers have decided that it is time for a slowing economy and market pull back.
I did not think the economy and markets would have been as resilient as they have been. The Trump tax cut which added hundreds of billions of dollars to stock buy backs this year also helped keep the good times going.
And so....what to do?
The indicators above cannot tell you when, they only tell you what. The US Fed will raise rates again this week, and the tax cut cash for buy backs must run out at some point. I think we had a precursor of what is to come in February, when the DOW dropped 1000 points in a single day.
But staying patient is hard when you are on the wrong side of a trade. And, compounding this is the fact that I not only see a pull back, but also significant stagnation after that, which will crush passive investors. I may be the only one out there predicting this!
Please see previous blog here...
https://mewetree.blogspot.com/2018/08/different-this-time.html
Predicting a market pull-back also feels unseemly, as this will hurt tens of millions of people.
And yet, I see no reason to change course.
Rosenstein's 25th
The NYT has reported that Rosenstein mused about recording the chaos in the White House as a precursor to launching a 25th Amendment impeachment of Trump - basically alleging that he is unfit for office, and unable to carry on his duties.
Rosenstein has issued a public statement to the effect that he denies this report, and he confirms that Trump should not be removed based on the 25th Amendment. There is some discussion in the press that he perhaps joked about this at some point.
No matter who is in the White House, for anyone who works in the administration of justice to even joke about invoking the 25th Amendment is so serious that it warrants immediate dismissal. It speaks of an almost unbelievable level of arrogance, and a basic misunderstanding of who is in charge. Even Trump deserves some level of loyalty - he is the elected President of the United States of America, after all.
And yet...Trump has still not fired Rosenstein, in spite of a situation in which ANY president would be within his or her rights to send him packing!
What will it take for Trump to start to use the tools he has to defend his presidency - firings, pardons, appointing someone to look at the Clintons?!!
I am not on the man's side, but this is getting embarrassing!
Rosenstein has issued a public statement to the effect that he denies this report, and he confirms that Trump should not be removed based on the 25th Amendment. There is some discussion in the press that he perhaps joked about this at some point.
No matter who is in the White House, for anyone who works in the administration of justice to even joke about invoking the 25th Amendment is so serious that it warrants immediate dismissal. It speaks of an almost unbelievable level of arrogance, and a basic misunderstanding of who is in charge. Even Trump deserves some level of loyalty - he is the elected President of the United States of America, after all.
And yet...Trump has still not fired Rosenstein, in spite of a situation in which ANY president would be within his or her rights to send him packing!
What will it take for Trump to start to use the tools he has to defend his presidency - firings, pardons, appointing someone to look at the Clintons?!!
I am not on the man's side, but this is getting embarrassing!
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