Masked Trump

Trump has COVID-19.  

I do hope and pray that he and those around him who also caught this disease get well.

Trump left hospital for a short while yesterday to wave at people who have shown up at the Walter Reed Medical Centre to support him. I think this may be about the second time we have seen Trump wearing a mask for more than a spilt second.

If you looked closely, I could swear that you could also see blood dripping from his hands as he waved.  

He knew this was a killer disease in February...there is a recording of him actually saying so. He played it down for months.

How many people have become sick and died after going to his rallies? 

How many people followed his lead and did not wear masks, and later became sick and died?

We will never know. We do know that over 200,000 Americans are dead - the highest death toll from this disease on Earth.

We also know Donald Trump is definitely wearing a mask now. He is doing what he does best...he's looking out for Number One.

He will be fine. He is getting the best medical care in the world.

Presidential Debate RUMBLE

Wow! That was pathetically intriguing!

Who won?

Trump claimed for MONTHS that Biden was an ambling, mindless, doddering old Alzheimer's patient, dancing at the end of some magic strings pulled by AOC.   

Verdict - the allegation is total Bull Shit.

But it is worse for Trump...

The President has a problem. His doctor was concerned enough about his cognitive abilities to give him an impromptu test to make sure he was not terminally befuddled. Trump later noted that he "aced" the test...as he has no doubt aced everything he has ever done.

But the world toke note. His opponents started tracking his gaffes. They have been waiting to unload...and now we get this...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMtfAySJWJo

And this...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hT1ndQagBLI

Trump is about to start wearing the same label that he tried to paste on Biden regarding "cognitive abilities". I have to wonder whether, when he is charged with a range of tax-related offences after he is no longer president, will he claim mental deficiency in order to try to stay out of the slammer?

Trump would not disavow White Nationalism in the debate. This will be the centrepiece of attack ads for the next four weeks - the man is a closet Nazi sympathizer.

Ads, like this...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5aM6W2HR_E

Trump thinks going racist will tap into a silent racist White majority. 

But America has changed since 1968 - there is no such majority anymore. America is a more decent place now than the caricature of the place that exists in the recesses of this bizarre man's befuddled mind.

"Stand back, and stand by..." = Bye Bye.

.

 

Will Trump Win? No...

I covered this in May...time to revisit the theory of Professor Allan Lichtman who has successfully predicted the last nine US presidential elections.  

Lichtman's model is simple - if any six of these questions are seen as False, the sitting president will lose. 

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nominations.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There’s no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/ military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/ military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Let's look again to see if Trump will be re-elected according to this model. I'll note changes in RED.

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

The Republicans lost control of the House of Representatives - False

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nominations.

There are no serious competitors to Trump, however, some Republicans have organized media campaigns against him which is unprecedented - True/False

Change to False. The opposition to Trump from well-organized Republicans, such as those behind the Lincoln Project, is likely more significant than having someone run against him to be the nominee.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

Trump is the president - True 

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

There is no third party or independent challenger of note - True

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

The economy will be in recession - False

6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

The growth is above the mean for the two previous terms - True...however, the effects of COVID 19 may mask this entirely...a weaker than normal indicator.  

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

There have been major policy changes - True

8. Social unrest: There’s no sustained social unrest during the term.

The George Lloyd's murder may result in sustained unrest, but we will not know for months - True

Change to False - There is continuing social unrest in many places in the United States. This will explode if Trump and the Republicans ram through a new Supreme Court nominee in the weeks before the election. 

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

The entire administration has been a scandal - impeachment will hurt Trump here - False

10. Foreign/ military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

The foreign policy pursued by Trump has seen no major failures - True

11. Foreign/ military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

Trump has launched no wars but renewing NAFTA was a major foreign policy success, as was the recent peace deal in the Middle East - True

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

Trump is a hero to tens of millions/a vagabond to tens of millions - no American president has ever worked so hard to divide his country - True/False

Change to True - Trump is adored by his supporters. Still, the level of hatred is matched by his opponents - a weaker than normal indicator.

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Biden has charisma - False

The totals...

True - 7 (2 are weak)
False - 6

My review of Lichtman's model suggests that Trump will lose the next presidential election.  

 

Advice to Statue Topplers Everywhere

Sir John A Macdonald's statue in Montreal was toppled by demonstrators a few days ago.  

That was a criminal act.

Some advice from a previous rebel who also felt similarly entitled...

"If you must break the law, do it to seize power. Otherwise, observe it." - Caesar

 

Biden' Response to Trump

Biden has an excellent response to Trump's allegation that Americans will not be safe in Biden's America. In fact, it is Trump's America that is falling apart, by design...see here...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2e35AbLP_Y

While the response is excellent, you need to understand that this interaction with the utterly indigestible Anderson Cooper was staged. We learned about how closely the Clinton News Network works with the Democrats from Wikileaks - this no doubt continues. The soft-ball questions that were asked would have been arranged or provided in advance.

Worse than that, if you look closely, you will see that Biden is actually reading from a teleprompter. This suggests that he and his political advisors may not think he can handle even a simple interview by a favourable news source unaided.

Biden looked very good in his speech at the DNC, but if I were a Democrat supporter in the USA, I would be wondering how this guy is going to debate Donald Trump.

Fact - Biden is a much-reduced man compared to who he was even five years ago. Then again, FDR was almost dead when he won his last election and managed to win America's greatest war.

Biden

Short commentary...

Biden made the speech I had hoped he would make. It was all about unity and an end to hate. It was inspirational - maybe the best speech he has ever given.

However, he was obviously pushing as hard as he could to stay on top for 25 minutes. He did well - I counted only eight very slight missteps. Nonetheless, I think that speech will be the most energy we will see from Biden from this point onward.

I shudder to think what he will be like in the third year of a mandate. He needs to commit to only staying for one term of office.

Note - Including both the Pervert Clinton and the Crooked Clinton as part of the Democratic National Convention was painful to watch. Biden needs to be forthright enough to tell them to go away. This is his party now.

The Trump Doctrine and COVID-19

He underplayed the pandemic risk for months on end, blowing chances of isolating the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA early on.

He wrongly predicted the demise of the pandemic numerous times, lulling people into a false sense of ease.

He decried the use of masks, and refused to be seen using one for months, and he supports anti-maskers.

He has held mass gatherings where people did not social distance or wear masks.

He undercuts virtually all of his scientific advisors - especially Fauci - pushing conspiracy theory-based treatments and perspectives which, if followed, would actually kill people.

He blames the recent massive spread of the disease on testing...as in, the USA tests so much more than any other country that the Americans naturally find more COVID-19 than any other country, the implication being that there is no real issue.

He refuses to lead on this issue, preferring distractions such as his growing confrontation with China.

People wonder at his intelligence - why ignore taking steps that other countries are doing successfully worldwide, and the best scientific advice? 

He is not nuts - I think Trump knows exactly what he is doing, which is this...

Trump's sole focus is on November 3, 2020. Present opinion polls indicate that he has a less than a 10% chance of winning re-election. Because of this, he needs a different strategy from that of "being elected" to stay in office. This is where COVID-19 comes in.

Trump has recently indicated that he may try to delay the election because of COVID-19. This is related to his concern that the related use of more mail-in ballots means mass fraud, as more COVID-19 = more mail-in ballots = a stronger accusation of fraud. Both the delay gambit and allegation of a fraudulent election could potentially keep him in office regardless of the outcome of the vote.

This strategy only works if the pandemic is still raging in November.  If America has dealt well with the pandemic by then, then the vote would not be delayed and there would be no basis for increased use of mail-in ballots, so there would be less of a basis for Trump to challenge the vote based on claims of mail-in fraud.

COVID-19, like the Black Lives Matter demonstrations that he has been actively encouraging and making even more violent, is therefore his political friend. 

And so, Trump's COVID-19 strategy should be obvious - he has been doing whatever he can to keep the pandemic raging across the country, because this is the basis of his "Plan B" strategy for staying in office should he not win the vote itself.  

Unlike any previous American president, he is willing to do things that others have never been willing to do. This includes purposely dividing his country on race lines, and stoking the flames of a pandemic knowing it will kill tens of thousands of people as part of a strategy to try to stay in power.

Trump has no doubt already instructed A.G. Barr to prepare documentation to bring legal proceedings to contest the election, based on the the fact that he will claim main-in-ballot fraud, no matter what happens with COVID-19. 

Although Republicans have so far said that a delay to the election is not on, expect Mitch McConnell to start to soon start to voice his opinion that the election should be delayed...a shameless sycophant is always a shameless sycophant.

The Trump Doctrine is to focus only on Power at Any Price through Any Method, at the expense of everything else.

There has never been an American President like this man.