Ontario Votes - Now What?

Now what? Here is what I think may be the next four years under the Progressive Conservatives in Ontario. This will happen roughly in sequence.

Taxes: They will cut taxes as fast as they can, regardless of the effect on the deficit and debt. These PCs are not the PCs of old. Many have been tutored by American-style politics and by the American Right. Many of them earnestly believe that “tax is theft!”

Deficits and Debt: Expect a deficit of at least $5 Billion in the first full year of a Doug Ford government, and maybe as high as $10 Billion as their tax cut obsession slams right into a looming recession led by a collapsing housing bubble in Toronto and trade disputes with the USA. When the next election comes, I think the PCs will have added $20 - $30 Billion to the debt - will they add more to the debt than the NDP was planning to add to it had they won? Ontario’s debt rating will fall again on the PC’s watch. They will still be blaming Kathleen Wynne for all these problems in 2022.

The War on Organized Labour: Mike Harris had enough respect for organized labour to actually restore collective bargaining in the province after it had been taken away by the “socialist” premier, Bob Rae. These PCs are not Mike Harris PCs. They truly despise organized labour, and public sector unions in particular seeing them as at the cutting edge of the tremendous wrong that is government itself. Hudak accurately reflected their predispositions in his promise to fire 100,000 people four years ago.

A Doug Ford government would have hit labour hard regardless of the economic conditions in the province, but in a looming recession they will strike with particular vehemence.  They have already signalled their excuse for massive cuts to public sector employment, wages and benefits - “…we had no idea the books were so bad!” Yes they did, courtesy of the legislature’s oversight of spending and auditor general reports – they were simply playing the electorate for fools. 

With this excuse in hand – courtesy of analysis of the books by an auditor chosen carefully to produce the desired "doom and gloom" report (Note - again, we already have an auditor in this province!) - they will stride forth to fire thousands of public sector employees (est. 5,000 +), freeze wage growth, or even slash wages at the stroke of a pen (est. 5%), and freeze or even reduce benefits, especially pensions across the board (est. 5%). In fact, no matter who won the public service would have been in serious trouble. We will see public service strikes.

Health Care: Get ready to pay for many services that are now covered by the public health care plan out of your pocket. These PCs talk a good game, but they do not really believe in the existing public health care system – many actually believe that the delivery of this public necessity can best be done through the private sector. The easiest way to privatize the system is to simply reduce the list of health services that it covers.  

From perhaps eye care, to ambulances, to hospital stays, to medications provided during hospital stays, expect to receive bills for more and more of what we have taken for granted was covered by the system. This privatization will not come with a grand pronouncement – just via an ever-expanding list of delisted services – privatization by stealth. We will see no intelligent, thoughtful change to the system.

They will also dictate a contract to MDs in the province, and will try to limit wage growth for nurses as well. To gain the support of MDs, they may allow some limited extra billing for basic services like visits to your family doctor, and they will challenge the federal government to stop them. We will see MD and nurses strikes.

Social Assistance and Minimum Wages: Expect significant cuts to levels of social assistance (est 10%), and in the face of a recession they will also cut the recently raised minimum wage (est. to $13.00.) They will see the challenge of the recession as requiring that they help business, not working people, arguing that helping business does help working people by creating jobs. There is no question that raising the minimum wage as fast as the Liberals did cost jobs in Ontario. Where Liberals and the NDP see workers, PCs see businesses. 

The Environment: The Climate Change agenda of the Liberals will be reversed 100%, and will be replaced by something from the federal government. It may be that we should expect some development of the Green Belt around Toronto.

Hydro: Ford will fire hydro senior executives, and replace them with his friends. Will his friends will receive even higher compensation? Otherwise, they will do almost nothing, and they can’t as Wynne’s changes are largely locked in. They will blame Wynne, and she will deserve it.

Regulations: Expect a significant push to repeal regulations that are considered to be an irritant to business – probably long overdue.

Infrastructure: The looming recession will cause a significant delay to reams of public sector infrastructure projects, owing to a lack of funds. This would have happened no matter who was in power.

Education: Expect reforms to curricula to focus on “the three Rs”, and massive changes to the sex education curricula. We will see teachers strikes.  

Child Care: They will allow tax payers to deduct child care expenses no matter who provides the child care. This is an anti-government policy, not a child care policy. This will be VERY well received throughout the province, and will be copied nationally – it will be Doug’s one true legacy (note – this will indirectly pay mostly women for what has always been seen as “house work”. Doug Ford the radical feminist!)  Child care workers may strike.

Governance: The PC government will be dominated by the politics of “blame and lies”, that dominates much of US politics now. The point of blaming others, and of lying and distorting reality to reflect your point of view, is to mobilize your tribe against the others knowing that your tribe wants to blame others, and that it is happy to listen to lies and distortions as long as they fit their personal political narrative.  This type of politics is practised by all three parties now, but will be particularly acute under the PCs.

The PC Party: The PC Party has overseen a palace revolt by insiders against an elected leader, and nomination fights wracked by fraud. They may be corrupt even before they start governing! 

We may come to learn that this party is full of crooks and sleazy opportunists – the positioning is underway even now, and we may come to see numerous scandals and even some criminal convictions of party members before the next election. 

This, plus the effects of the next recession – for which Ontario is not ready courtesy of terrible governance under Wynne, and which will devastate the economy – may see the PCs essentially wiped out in 2022. This party may actually cease to exist shortly after this, replaced by a new party - much as what happened to the Saskatchewan PC party some 20 years ago. That Doug Ford could take it over so easily should show just how weak it actually is.

And then there is Doug himself…

The Premier: I suspect that Doug Ford will not be the premier when the next election is called in 2022. I would expect him to resign in “defiant disgrace” within two years owing to revelations about his personal life, and significant irregularities in his public life – obvious lack of knowledge about basic issues; significant “inaccuracies” and outrage regarding his public statements; significant concerns about his actions in public, especially the possibility of repeated public drunkenness; and maybe even criminal charges related to how he managed his company and his father’s and Rob’s estate (NB - it is a crime for an executor or trustee to convert the residue of an estate or trust to their personal use without authorization.)  

I just wanted someone who would manage the province competently.  Still waiting.