The West

Times, they are a changin’…

Here are just some of the drivers pushing hard against the political, social and economic status quo that was crafted by the West and which has existed, in some cases since the end of World War Two.

Western Domestic Politics - Obama’s election, which was followed by Trump’s, reflecting the almost complete Red-Blue divide in the USA that is neutering the ability of that country to maintain world leadership and the related institutions; Euroscepticism, including at least Brexit, Italy’s Five Star Movement, the second-place finish of Le Pen as candidate to be the President of France, and perpetual Greek dissatisfaction as well as that of almost all of the other member states; Scottish nationalism that will destroy the UK if Brexit is successful; The rise of Muslim dictatorship in Turkey; Merkel’s weakened position in Germany, and the subtle rise of German nationalism. 

The West has probably not been as weak as it is now in three generations. The problem is both material and metaphysical - to a very real extent, many in the West no longer believe in the West anymore.  

Economics - Greek insolvency and economic depression, and impending debt crises in many other nations including the USA and many Western states which cannot ever pay their debts, and which will have tremendous difficulty even financing their debt in a world of…rising interest rates, which are guaranteed to burst asset bubbles in stock and housing markets, and spark a worldwide recession; The impending insolvency of domestic pensions in many Western states, especially in the USA, which will exacerbate political extremism; Emerging market vulnerability to these other events, which could see emerging market depression in many countries that were formally “non-aligned” which could have a significant impact in international relations (read – China takes over); Trade wars, unlike any that we have witnessed in generations, that will definitely hurt economic growth and wider international relations.

Economic threats are serious enough to remake domestic and international politics in a way that results in a “new world order” that is far less friendly to the West and its related ideals. The West is losing the ability to set the agenda.

International Relations - A newly aggressive Russia, now actively expanding in Syria, Ukraine, and likely trying to push into the Baltic States and the Caucuses region soon; A newly aggressive China, asserting ownership over the South China Sea and arming it to the teeth, while making new veiled threats against Taiwan while expanding its soft power influence throughout Africa and Asia; A nuclear-armed North Korea, guaranteed to cause serious reflection about rearmament - including the nuclear option - in South Korea and Japan especially in the face of the questionable attempt to disarm North Korea on the part of Trump; The twin disasters of Syria and Libya with the rise of ISIS all over the world, following hard on the catastrophe of Iraq, and the quiet, on-going bloodletting in the proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran in Yemen, all signalling the present and continuing destabilization of the entire region; The economic stagnation and slow reversion to autocracy and kleptocracty in Africa and elsewhere, especially in Venezuela and Turkey; The eventual loss of Afghanistan and much of Pakistan to the Taliban and the continuing challenge of international terrorism.

As the West neuters itself domestically and faces significant challenges to the world it crafted stemming from impending economic stresses, the West’s historic and other opponents are moving in to claim territory, allies and access to resources. China will come to effectively rule most of Asia.

There are other significant threats as well – environmental (Climate Change) and technological (AI). 

The world as we know it will not exist in five years.  It will take a giant of a person - an enlightened person with significant foresight - to move from this chaos to a new paradigm with a positive outcome.  

We have Trump.