The Russia Collusion Thing

“No Collusion!”  This refrain is repeated constantly by President Trump and his media minions on Fox and in the print media. It begs a consideration of the links between his associates and Russia in and around the last presidential election in the USA.

I was going to do a blog on all the ties between Trump affiliated people and the Russians, but this has already been done. See here...

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/03/connections-trump-putin-russia-ties-chart-flynn-page-manafort-sessions-214868

This is over six months old, and other links have been revealed since then, but it is excellent - way better than anything I could do.

Here is an updated timeline of the links to Russia...

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/a-timeline-of-the-trump-russia-scandal-w511067

In the face of a relentlessly compromised journalism in the USA, on both the Left and Right, some organizations are still just sticking to the facts. Thank goodness. There may be hope!

So what do we know?

While having a relationship with Russians is not a crime, given the depth and breadth of these links, it is simply impossible to not have concerns about Russian influence over President Trump and his entourage both before, during and after the last presidential election. Some of the ties were directly with representatives of the Russian state during the formation of his administration, and/or with Putin himself.  

Keep in mind that the US intelligence services confirmed months ago that Russia did engage in interference in the US presidential election.  Trump has recently said that he sides with them, conveniently ignoring the essential point that the conclusion that there was Russian influence may serve as an indictment of his election and his entire administration.  But what choice did he have - he runs the intelligence services now.  

With this in mind, the only issue for consideration is did anyone associated with Trump help the Russians interfere in the election?  Or, does any of this amount to collusion?

So far, this could be seen as mostly host of seemingly inconvenient connections that point in the direction of common interests and hoped for outcomes, and possible opportunities for cooperation and joint benefit.  However, it does go beyond this...there are many causes for significant concern, pointing directly to possible collusion.

Consider that one person has been convicted of lying to the FBI about these contacts - Papadopoulos - and two others continue to apologize for lapses in memory related to their Russian contacts - even when testifying under oath before Congress (Sessions and Kushner.)  This does not bode well for Trump.  People who have nothing to hide do not typically try to hide things.

We also know that there is a strong likelihood that contacts with the Russians influenced the downgrading of the Republican party policy on Ukraine - before such contacts the Republicans were considering a policy of arming Ukraine, afterward they were not at the insistence of the Trump campaign.

As well, there are apparent links to WikiLeaks, where many of the damaging e-mails regarding Clinton and her associates likely came from hackers who were linked to Russia.  If Trump linked persons knew that this came from hacking activities of a foreign power trying to influence a US presidential election, they had to call the police, not try to reap the political benefits.

Finally, and as has been noted in these pages, the crime of conspiracy to subvert a US presidential election in concert with a foreign power can probably be made out as a result of the meeting that Manafort, Kushner and Trump Jr, attended on June 16, 2016. They went to the meeting to do just that, and they received information, reviewed it, and handed it back with a view to possibly using the information to damage the Clinton campaign.  Understand - this is not research.  If it was in concert with a foreign government to subvert a US election, it is criminal activity in the same vein as treason. In my opinion, this act of reviewing material cements the crime of conspiracy as you usually need an act to accompany any conspiratorial plan. We shall see.

And so, the “smoking gun” hasn’t been found, but there are so many plumes of smoke spiraling skyward here that Smokey the Bear would have significant concerns that the entire forest is about to burn down.  

Stay tuned. Put out your campfires...

Blue Jays!!

What should the Blue Jays do???

They have some excellent young pitchers, a few average infielders and a couple of average young outfielders, plus Donaldson.

The other guys on this team are past their best-before dates. It is time to plan to have a full complement of competitive talent for two - three years from now - meaning, the young pitchers we have now who will still be good in two years, plus a host of new talent from trades and the farm system.  This means that if they are going to trade Donaldson - who is a free agent next year, so prime trade bait right now - than they need to realize that this means a rebuild, so they need to trade the rest for what they can get now as well.

If they try half-measures - trade Donaldson to try to be competitive next year - they will fail. This management duo has been coasting with AA's team, although getting Happ was brilliant, while losing Encarnacion was unforgivable.  

Management Lesson - if you don't make a guy an offer in free agency, he probably won't say yes.

They own what happens from here.

We are 103 days from the first Spring Training game.

Go Jays Go!

Who's been buying?

The US stock market is massively overvalued by many historic metrics.

The Shiller Price/Earnings ratio has only been this high once since the Great Depression, and that was during the high tech bubble...

http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

The Q Ratio also says that we are in uncharted territory....

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/11/02/the-q-ratio-and-market-valuation-october-update

So, with the market arguable massively overvalued, the question is….who has been buying stocks at these levels?

Here is the answer. It looks like much of the market’s price growth has been a result of companies borrowing cheap money, and buying back their own shares in the stock market, which has the effect of increasing the price.  See here…

And here….

This implies that much of the the trillions of US dollars that have been lent to Corporate America courtesy of historically low interest rates - the lowest in human history - to expand the economy has instead been going to pump stock prices, which, of course, fattens the pocketbooks of the people who own/manage those companies.

America is about to do new corporate tax cuts to spur investment, with no requirement that anyone invest any money in anything. Given Corporate America's preference for paying itself rather than investing, and given that these tax cuts could just as easily go as bonuses to the wealthy people who run these companies, is it fair to say that everyone should know at this point that this policy won't work?

This what type of cat?...

What's Next Redux

On November 1, 2017....

"What is next? Here are the possible happenings, with odds…

...He asks the FBI to launch an investigation into the Clintons – 95/5. He badly needs a distraction - this will almost certainly happen."

See here...

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/11/13/sessions-directs-prosecutors-to-evaluate-certain-issues-involving-uranium-one-and-clinton-leaves-door-open-on-special-counsel.html

A new Special Prosecutor may not be far behind.

Consider yourself suitably distracted.

Thought de jour

Hmmm....like Papadopoulos, has Flynn already been charged and he has already entered pleas of guilty and been found guilty? The strongest case has always been against Flynn.  

In return to a lenient sentence against him (and maybe his son as well), has he agreed to be wired for the last few months, and especially over the last week with Mueller and his crew recording every word said to him by anyone who may see themselves implicated by the Manafort and Gates charges and the possible fall-out?

The Trump White House is up against a professional FBI man. I would not be surprised.

Flynn x 2? Mueller Bye, Bye?

Update -

Zero Hedge and the Guardian are reporting that Flynn and his son are about to be charged as part of the Mueller investigation.  

As well, a Florida Republican, Matt Gaetz, has called for Mueller to recuse himself from the investigations because he hasn't investigated the Clinton's and allegations of shading dealing with respect to Uranium and Russia, and because the related sale of a company called Uranium One to a Russian form. This is supported by Arizona Republican Andy Biggs, and Louie Gohmert of Texas.  

What to think?

Flynn could be pardoned by Trump at any time, with the President asserting that he hasn't been charge with anything so it would be a "nothing burger". Mueller needs to charge him if he wants to keep him "in the bag".

There is no way that the Republicans noted above would be proceeding on their own. Their called for the removal of Muller would have been done in concert with the White House.  If this doesn't work - and it won't as more Republicans want Mueller to continue - the possibility that Trump will fire him grows markedly.

Finally, the revelations of Donna Brazille regarding the Clintons and her time as the head of the DNC warrant front page news everywhere in America. They stole the 2016 nomination. They will try their hand at politics again - they are utterly corrupt, and regardless of Trump, the US press should be screaming this reality to all who will listen.

Today, CNN has two small front-page commentaries on this on their "politics" page among up to thirty such articles. Huffington Post USA has an article with Clinton staffers' (read the Clintons, who would have planted this) allegation that Brazille bought into the Russia narrative.

What's Next???

Holy Moly, it has begun!!

So, here is the deal. I think The Donald is toast. I have thought that for some time. I predicted impeachment by end of the Summer…I missed. Late Winter or early Spring is possible.

Mueller has Flynn in the bag, which is why he was not charged. He now has Papadopolouos, who no one knew about. Manafort and Gates are on $10 Million bail, under house arrest…they will fold like a cheap suit hanging on a rack of despair.

What is next? Here are the possible happenings, with odds…

He fires Mueller – 50/50. That would be a fairly desperate move. Mueller was subjected to a massive round of slander and attacks related to the Clintons and Uranium the week before the Manafort charges – a preemptive strike. It didn’t work. That he was subjected to this is exceptionally disturbing.

He pardons everyone, especially Flynn who has not been charged yet, and maybe even himself – 60/40. This would also be seen as an act of desperation. His protests that this investigation is a distraction seem to be real, at least in his mind. I think the personality of this guy suggest he would pardon everyone in order to get on with the work of making American great again – work that he sees as synonymous with his own political success and survival. He is America in his mind.

BTW, does this sound familiar.... "I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky. I never told anybody to lie, not a single time; never. These allegations are false. And I need to go back to work for the American people. Thank you."  The need to get back to work for the American people is a time-honored American political canard.

He resigns – 0/100. Not happening.

He asked the FBI to launch an investigation into the Clintons – 95/5. He badly needs a distraction - this will almost certainly happen.

Trump does not take advice. This matters because just about everyone around him would be telling him to not fire Mueller or pardon anyone, or risk immediate impeachment proceedings.

Again, I think he does see this all as a distraction. This implies that he may pull the trigger on some of the above options much soon than many people think to try to get his agenda moving again, especially tax cuts. He will not wait until things get more dire, so expect fireworks soon.