What's Next???

Holy Moly, it has begun!!

So, here is the deal. I think The Donald is toast. I have thought that for some time. I predicted impeachment by end of the Summer…I missed. Late Winter or early Spring is possible.

Mueller has Flynn in the bag, which is why he was not charged. He now has Papadopolouos, who no one knew about. Manafort and Gates are on $10 Million bail, under house arrest…they will fold like a cheap suit hanging on a rack of despair.

What is next? Here are the possible happenings, with odds…

He fires Mueller – 50/50. That would be a fairly desperate move. Mueller was subjected to a massive round of slander and attacks related to the Clintons and Uranium the week before the Manafort charges – a preemptive strike. It didn’t work. That he was subjected to this is exceptionally disturbing.

He pardons everyone, especially Flynn who has not been charged yet, and maybe even himself – 60/40. This would also be seen as an act of desperation. His protests that this investigation is a distraction seem to be real, at least in his mind. I think the personality of this guy suggest he would pardon everyone in order to get on with the work of making American great again – work that he sees as synonymous with his own political success and survival. He is America in his mind.

BTW, does this sound familiar.... "I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky. I never told anybody to lie, not a single time; never. These allegations are false. And I need to go back to work for the American people. Thank you."  The need to get back to work for the American people is a time-honored American political canard.

He resigns – 0/100. Not happening.

He asked the FBI to launch an investigation into the Clintons – 95/5. He badly needs a distraction - this will almost certainly happen.

Trump does not take advice. This matters because just about everyone around him would be telling him to not fire Mueller or pardon anyone, or risk immediate impeachment proceedings.

Again, I think he does see this all as a distraction. This implies that he may pull the trigger on some of the above options much soon than many people think to try to get his agenda moving again, especially tax cuts. He will not wait until things get more dire, so expect fireworks soon.