Mueller Closing In?

Mueller may be very close.

Trump and Giuliani and their subservient journalists/pals are on the warpath. The arrival of the former mayor of NYC at the White House has resulted in a virtual tirade of invective against Muller and the FBI, the likes of which we have not seen before. This invective is now bordering on obstruction in and of itself, but those who are perpetrating it likely see no issue with doubling down on a possible obstruction charge if the result is frustrating a preceding and more problematic obstruction case! Let the lies and distortions continue!

What’s next?

Manafort’s appeal of Mueller’s mandate in Virginia may succeed at its first stage. If so, it will be appealed successfully, but this will take time and it could set Mueller back by maybe 6 months, during which Trump and Giuliani will have more time to try to destroy the investigation. If the appeal fails, Manafort will face trials in Washington and Virginia that he will lose. He faces the prospect of years in prison – this is the opportunity Mueller has been setting up for over a year. Without Manafort, there can be no charges against Kushner and Trump Jr.

Where is Hope Hicks? One would have expected her to walk out of a courtroom by now, after having entered a plea of guilty to obstruction. Fact - you can’t lie to the cops, and she as much as admitted to doing just that. 

Has she been brought in as an FBI informant, and is she receiving calls/e-mails/texts from Trump confidants, letting them squeal about this and that while being recorded, adding more and more people to Mueller’s net? She is so crucial that I am starting to think she is also co-operating with the investigation. Trump used to tell her everything…is he still calling?

When will Cohen be charged? Given that he is a lawyer, the only way the NYC AG got a warrant to raid his office is if they had proof of a crime. He will be charged – there is no doubt that he is negotiating right now for the best deal possible. He will throw Trump under the bus to save his skin.

The FBI will complete its internal investigation into whether or not the Mueller investigation is engaged in partisan activities. It will find none, but anything negative in the report to be used by Trump and Giuliani to press “the conspiracy conspiracy”.

Trump and Giuliani would not be getting as desperate as they appear to be if they did not think Mueller was getting very close....and Giuliani would know.

Wither, Ontario?

We have $349 Billion in debt, costing us $12 Billion a year in interest payments to service. We are one recession and a few years more of massive borrowing away from our creditors starting to dictate public policy in this province. All three of the main parties are responsible for this mess. Many issues are important in the Ontario general election; deficits and debt are the only issues that actually matter.

None of the main parties has an actual plan to avoid this looming catastrophe. They are all determined to try to buy votes by promising voters whatever they think they want to hear in order to be swayed in their direction. 

Wynne and Horwath are trying to buy votes on the expenditure side. Ford is trying to buy votes on the tax cut side. There is no real difference – they all believe that the people of this province are so small and self-interested that, instead of presenting us with a grand challenge such as becoming solvent so as to not mortgage our future, they are content to try to bribe us with our own money, borrowed from a diminishing future. For them, there is one real issue in politics - to try to target what the politicos tell them is the correct amount of cash and goodies to the correct segment of the population so as to reap the greatest electoral benefits. 

Small people have small visions and limited dreams. The leaders of these parties could stand in the middle of the desert at sundown and none of them would cast a shadow. 

Theirs is the pathetic politics of the public sycophant – “Ask what your country can do for you, so that I can promise that very thing to you, again and again!” The excuses for non-delivery have already been crafted by all three parties (e.g. “We had no idea the books were so badly out of balance!  Who knew that there could be another recession!! Unfortunately, this means a delay on the delivery of goodies.”)

Who do I vote for if I am primarily concerned about the long term financial health of Ontario? 

Wynne is publicly committed to running more deficits – a whopping $12 Billion this fiscal year according to the auditor general. 

Ford has promised to balance the budget in the last year of his mandate – like Justin Trudeau before him. We have no idea how big his deficits will be, because the PCs have not released a costed platform. How can they govern and pass budgets if they can’t even cost their platform? 

Horwath is the most credible of the three – she has a legitimate costed platform. But the NDP platform runs so close to the margin – so many things have to go right - that it is not credible. It also forecasts deficits without end - smaller than Wynne’s deficits, but deficits just the same. In five years, they would add $25 billion to the debt.

The key assumption of the NDP is this…“Economic growth is projected to increase provincial revenues by over $17 billion over the next four years.” In fact, the NDP's economic forecasts are based on those in Wynne's widely panned Budget 2018!! 

We are overdue for another recession. If we have a couple of years of declining revenues, and they try to implement their “…something for everyone except the rich” platform, we could see all sources of government borrowing dry up as Ontario becomes an unacceptable risk to creditors – or we have to pay such high rates of interest on new debt that it becomes politically and financially unacceptable to borrow more. This more commonly known as insolvency.

So, what do we do to avoid a never-ending fiscal mess in the face of these three awful choices?

I don’t know.

Cohen Cashes In!

So, Cohen, Trump’s personal lawyer and fixer, met a wealthy Russian financier at Trump Tower just before the inauguration. Apparently,they net three times. There is no way that the Oligarch is not directly connected to Putin. 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/us-politics/article-trump-lawyer-michael-cohen-met-with-russian-oligarch-shortly-before/

Cohen also received $1 Million in a consulting contract, ostensibly for insight into Trump. Or, was this cash really for Trump, flowing via Cohen? It is hard to imagine that he could be bought by the Russians for $1 million, but where there is a money trail it needs to be followed, as small money often leads to to bigger things. 

Not evidence of collusion, but likely the first evidence of money flowing directly to a Trump loyalist in and around the campaign and inauguration from what is ostensibly a direct connection to Putin.

How can anyone be calling for the end to this investigation!?

NO COLLUSION! Just cold hard cash...

Infiltraitors!

Infiltraitors, or surveillance?

OMG! The FBI infiltrated the Trump campaign! They hid a mole on the inside! They are using the power of the state to subvert the political system and democracy! It's a constitutional crisis!!

Well, no.

After days of rabid idiocy from the WSJ, and Fox about "deep states" and conspiracies, from what we now know there was NO infiltration of the Trump campaign. There was an apparent attempt at surveillance from the outside. 

Specifically, AFTER Papadopalous revealed to an Australian diplomat that he knew that the Russians had Hillary’s 30,000 lost e-mails, the FBI may have approached Stephan Halper, a long time national security bureaucrat under Reagan and Bush Sr., and now academic in Britain, to approach Papadopolous to gain more intelligence concerning this accusation. Get it? This guy was not a mole that the FBI “hid” in the campaign…he wasn’t even part of the campaign. The Right Wing media has lost its mind…and its way.

The key point here is “AFTER”. Because all of this happened after the revelations by Papadopoulos to the diplomat, it shows the FBI had probable cause for launching surveillance. Why? Because to any reasonable person it would have seemed likely that the only way Papadopoulos could have known that the Russians had those e-mails would be if he was in contact with those same Russians, one way or another, and the only way that those Russians could have those e-mails would be if they had hacked them.   

This matters even now, and would have mattered to the FBI then, because Clinton NEVER used the secure government e-mail system. If the Russians were hacking her, then they would likely have access to all the secret and top secret e-mails that she was sending and receiving when she was the Secretary of State. The reasonable thing for the FBI to have done when information came to light that someone knew that the Russians may have had this information was to put them under surveillance in an attempt to get more information, especially to attempt to ascertain the extent of what could have been a massive breach of US national security courtesy of Hillary Clinton.

Ironically enough then, the obvious interest that the FBI may have had in Papodopoulos would extend not from Trump’s activities but ultimately from Clinton’s.

But what matters to Trump is any possible negative result for Trump. And so, Trump has ordered an investigation by the Department of Justice into the possible political motivations behind their surveillance (...see previous blog.) It may make more sense to just order a second special investigation into Clinton’s shinanigans. One wonders why he has not done this already.

Post Script - It its "Mole" article, the WSJ made the claim that the FBI purposely neglected to tell the congressional enquiry into possible Russian collusion that they had put Papadopolous under surveillance. If true, this is serious as it suggests that the FBI is keeping information from the people's elected representatives, and that is how this was spun by the WSJ. The WSJ later printed a short retraction stating that, in fact, the FBI did tell congress about the surveillance, they only withheld documents the release of which they deemed a risk. 

So, we now know that there was no mole in the campaign, and that the FBI did actually tell congress about the surveillance. The level of absolute shit that this journalism represents is equivalent to reporting that the Titanic survived its encounter with the iceberg, then printing a one line retraction saying, "oh, sorry, no it didn't." SHAME!

"Deep State"...What if?

Does Trump represent the catalyst for “the end of the USA”….coasting an undercurrent of discontent to permanently change the place?

It would take Trump plus all of his supporters, aiders and abettors in the media and elsewhere to “end the USA as we know it”, as he can’t do it on his own.  Nonetheless, Trump’s call to investigate the FBI for possible political influence in their investigation of his possible collusion with Russia and their surveillance of his campaign - after they had evidence that at least one person actually was talking to the Russians (Papadoloulos) - is so unprecedented and absolutely outrageous, so obviously designed to undo that organization, that it is actually hard to find a parallel.  

Note - if this sticks, the precedent could undermine all future police investigations of serious malfeasance by important members of the executive in that country.  Every time someone is investigated, they just scream "deep state!", and everything goes away! America's future? Think America as Venezuela or Russia…ironically enough.

A parallel from the past? Maybe England. Henry the 8^th launched the Reformation in England after the Pope – representing the orthodoxy and traditions of his era - refused him a divorce. He dissolved the Catholic convents and monasteries, and restored only those orders subservient to him. He confiscated Church lands and enriched himself and his buddies. He killed thousands of Catholic clergy and adherents, and inaugurated legal discrimination against Catholics that lasted for centuries. His was a complete reordering of social, societal, religious and political norms in that country that is still with us. 

Mueller represents the orthodoxy and traditions of his age – rule of law…proper role of bureaucracy…sacrosanctity of police investigations….old style “law and order” Republicans. 

Trump is a rebel against that orthodoxy, and maybe he has been able to tap into a society that is in rebellious enough a mood to bring about change, just as Henry 8^th understood that he could take advantage of the Reformation for “shits and giggles” (which is what they called “the rack” in the Middle Ages.) Trump is powered forward by an almost totally bankrupt and compromised media – Henry was powered by the disciples of Luther. 

“The first thing we must do is kill all the lawyers.” This comes from Shakespeare's Henry IV.  It was meant to signify one true path to tyranny – get rid of the most obvious guardians of the law – the lawyers. It is hard to watch what is going on South of the border without a tremendous degree of concern. 

On that, there is a virtual war afoot against the special prosecutor, led by the President of the USA in person, and coordinated with subservient minions in the press. Even Nixon didn’t do this. What is the logical end to the relentless character assassination of Mueller? Will he actually be assassinated by a cranked-up Hannity disciple who will rid Trump of “this bothersome copper”?  Is he a future Thomas Becket?

What may Trump do next?  

If he actually thinks the FBI is the “deep state” working for certain illegitimate political actors and for itself and against an elected President and against the USA (…he called them the “deep state” just last week), would he not have to “take out” those responsible? I mean,if he really believe this, would he not have to take real action?

Asking the FBI to investigate the FBI is not what you would do if you actually think the whole place is totally corrupt and disloyal. Does he use Army or CIA against the FBI at some point? Does he take a page from Erdogan, and arrest at least tens and maybe hundreds of “FBI sympathizers”, and hold them without trial – maybe send them to Gitmo where norms of American criminal process don’t exist? 

At first glance, this sounds absolutely insane, and I have a very difficult time thinking this is even remotely possible, but this is what a leader would actually do if an organ of the state were disloyal to the point of rebellion, which is the essential accusation that he is making against the FBI. We normally assume this talk and tweeting from Trump is just hyperbole…but is it all just hyperbole with this guy? 

So far, there is no obvious threat to Trump. As noted in this space, I think Manafort will eventually fold and confess that there was a deal with the Russians – “you get us the e-mails, and we relax the sanctions when we are in power”, which would represent a conspiracy against the USA…and treason. If Trump's son and son-in-law are charged based on Manafort's testimony and evidence, and Trump feels threatened, will he take very drastic action  as noted above to make sure those who oppose him are “eliminated”?….the script to support something like this has already been written.

America is changing, and not for the better.  

Middle Age England was a hilarious series of unfortunate events…beheadings, divorces, assassinations, mud and grime and plagues, peas and porridge in the pot for 9 days, virgin Queens, relentless civil wars and conquests and crusades and Armadas, Magna Cartas, intrigue. Seeing this chaos start to repeat itself in 21^st century America isn’t nearly as much fun…hmmm…is Stormy Daniels our virgin Queen?

Follow Up...

The WSJ has now clarified that the FBI did indeed reveal to Congress that they had an intelligence source within the Trump campaign - they did NOT conceal this. They did refuse to hand over documents relating to this person, for reasons noted in the previous blog.

The WSJ's cheap shot at the FBI is premised on the fact that the FBI planted someone in the Trump campaign - implicit in the article - and then they concealed it from Congress. It appears that neither of these things are actually true. 

Was the WSJ recently bought by Fox News?

Of Mice and Moles

The WSJ is apparently reporting today that the FBI may have had a “mole” in the Trump campaign in 2016! This information has actually been out for a while, but the FBI has been ordered to hand over information to Congress about this, so the Nutbar Press has seized on it today.

Specifically, many in the “conspiracy theory” press, which now includes FOX News and other mainstream providers, sees Deep State shenanigans! According to their argument, Obama and the FBI subverted American freedoms by infiltrating a presidential campaign with political spies! What is this, Russia!?

But previous reports suggest that this person was a “walk in” whistle blower who voluntarily provided information to the FBI. This is crucial because if the Nutbar Press is correct in saying that the FBI “hid” a mole in the campaign, this would strongly imply that the person was placed there by the FBI to spy. This could represent the Deep State destroying America...or it could mean that the FBI had serious enough concerns about the Trump team to put them under surveillance, which is their job.

If is the opposite true, and the mole went to the FBI on their own accord with their concerns about Russia and the campaign - which appears to be the case - then this very strongly suggests that there may have been collusion. After all, why else would anyone have approach the FBI...what whistle did they have to blow?? With someone approaching them with this type of story, was the FBI supposed to just ignore this?

So what does this mean, and can we reasonably know?

This person is apparently real and they likely have real evidence to present, so this strengthens the suspicion that the Trump campaign tried to subvert American freedom by selling itself to Russia. The scenario which claims Deep State subversion only makes sense of the person was planted by the FBI. Apparently, they were not.

The FBI also apparently kept information about the informant from the congressional investigation into possible collusion. The FBI says it withheld this source out of concern for the life of the person – think about what this says about the level of the FBI’s trust in politicians! This is further fuelling the conspiracy madness which is mocking this concern as a cheap cover for an illicit infiltration.

So what does this mean, and can we reasonably know?

Either the FBI is making up their concern about a possible threat to the life of this person to cover their shenanigans, or the threat is real which strongly suggests that the evidence that this person may have brought to bear is potentially earth shaking; so much so, that those who colluded with Russia would consider killing them rather than have it come out.

Congress likely now has access to this information. We will probably find out who this person is shortly.

To digress...every story related to possible collusion is now being spun by the press and the servants of the Democrats and Republicans in diametrically different ways. One is rationale, the other is borderline treasonous designed to shake the faith that persons have in American institutions for cheap political gain.

Is it fair to say that the US has not has as serious an existential crisis as this since their Civil War? 

Trump abrogates the Iran deal!

The 2015 deal between Iran and, among others the USA, Russia, China and Europe is effectively over. The USA will restore full sanctions, and Iran will re-start its nuclear weapons program – the one it has denied ever having. The restoration of US sanctions would make doing in business in Iran very difficult for companies from European nations. They will scream, but they will fall in line.

The rationale for abrogating the deal has to do with Trump’s mistrust of Iran’s basic undertaking to stop its nuclear program, and with his concerns over their activities in Syria and Yemen, where they are seen as a destabilising force. It is very likely that at least some of the billions of dollars in Iranian assets that were freed up as part of the deal did in fact go to fuelling wars in these countries, supporting America’s opponents.

Calling anyone who is active in Middle Eastern wars and politics a “destabilising force” is a bit rich. 

Every single major power in the region is bathed in buckets of blood and hypocrisy. Trump has looked at one of America’s enemies, which is getting the better of the USA in both of the above-mentioned countries, and he has decided to restart the economic war that America has been waging against them since 1979. The Iran peace deal was torn up essentially because there is no peace, and there never was. Iranian troops in Syria and on Israel’s northern border may be about to make that abundantly apparent to everyone by launching attacks ion Israel in response to Trump’s latest move.

But what about the nukes?

To me, it is inconceivable that Iran ever stopped trying to acquire nuclear weapons, even in spite of the agreement. The point would be to try to gain parity with Israel, which has had many such weapons for a very long time (officially denied). Since 1979, the Iranian leadership has made threatening to utterly destroy Israel a national staple. Many leaders there also officially deny the Holocaust. Hating Israel has become the primary distraction that is foisted on a population that tired of the regime a very long time ago. 

What’s next? 

The Europeans will try to save the deal to save the commercial agreements that many European countries stood to gain from in the coming years.

The price of oil will go up. American fracking will restart, and the price will come down.

Iranian soldiers in Syria will do “something” to respond to Trump’s announcement, likely by lashing out at Israel. Israel may invade Southern Syria to eradicate the threat. Israel definitely has plans to attack Iranian facilities that are working on their nuclear program. As warned in a previous blog, if they think the Iranians are getting close to a weapon, this will happen.

Within a year of the restoration of sanctions, demonstrations will break out in Iran again as the Revolutionary Guards, who control much of the economy, seek to continue to control a shrinking economic pie while normal people get squeezed more and more and demonstrate as a result. The regime will survive.

Individual Westerners who may be in Iran will be arrested on “trumped” up charges, and used as negotiating pawns by the Government of Iran. Like virtually everyone else in such circumstances, they will be repeatedly sexually assaulted and beaten, perhaps to death.

Russia will scream, and threaten. In fact, it has very little real leverage in the Middle East, but it may keep the assets it already has in Iran, like bombers, and dare the USA/Israel to attack and risk hitting Russians instead of Iranians. No matter what, Russia will not undertake to help Iran get a bomb…they are our opponents, but they are not crazy.

Saudi Arabia and Iran may engage in hostilities – likely an air campaign – following a range of incidents in Yemen between their respective protégés.

In short…the mess will continue to be exceptionally messy.

Manafort's Collusion??? A Judge's Delusion?

See previous blog...

...in asserting that Manafort’s previous alleged crimes are irrelevant to Mueller’s mandate, the Virginia judge is essentially asserting that there is no connection between Manafort’s prior conduct and an investigation into possible collusion.

Let's look at this...from an investigative perspective, what are the possible links between Manafort's previous conduct and possible collusion, with the idea being that any criminality found in that conduct should be fair game for Mueller if it is discovered as part of the investigation?

Maybe this…

Coercion Opportunity: Every cop looks for “the angle” that evil-doers may possess in their attempts to coerce and even extort otherwise law-abiding citizens. Manafort worked with Russia’s man in Ukraine for years, obviously as part of the decade’s long effort by Russia to undermine Ukraine and to bend it to Russia’s will. Any shenanigans that they may have committed in concert with Manafort would represent an opportunity to coerce him once he became Trump’s campaign manager.

On that, there is no question that the fact that Manafort left himself open to charges of bank and tax fraud, and money laundering (meaning he took illicit money from Russia’s stooge that he did not report), and to charges of failing to register as a foreign agent (meaning he worked for them without disclosing the relationship to US authorities), represented a coercion opportunity for these enemies of the USA. In that the Russians would have been well aware both that he was paid and that he was not a registered agent, and therefore would have had a chance to coerce him (i.e. “…work with us to subvert Trump or we rat you out…”), there is a direct connection here.

Like-Minded Opportunists: Manafort likely sees eye to eye with the those for whom he worked for a decade, especially on the issue of Ukraine the related sanctions that were imposed by the international community on Russia. It is obvious that this former arrangement represented the possible foundation for future illicit links between Manafort and the Russians on behalf of Trump. In fact, one of Mueller’s questions of Trump is precisely on this point.

Manafort’s prior conduct with the Russians may therefore constitute the starting point for a decade-long and expanding relationship between Manafort and the Russians of which the connection to Trump was just the latest chapter. There is also a direct connection here.

The Likely Quid Pro Quo: The Russians would have been seeking to influence Trump in order to get the sanctions that were imposed on that country following the illegal occupation of Ukraine relaxed. 

Manafort would have been intimately familiar with this Russian policy goal as he worked for their guy in Ukraine for a decade. There is an obvious policy linkage here between Manafort and the Russians. As Trump’s campaign manager, Manafort would have been in a position to make an illicit deal on his behalf. In fact, this was the very topic of conversation between Flynn and the Russian ambassador before Flynn’s disgrace in early 2017. 

Briefing the Russians: During the campaign and while he was Trump’s campaign chairman, Manafort briefed Oleg Deripaska – a Putin protégé and billionaire Russian – weekly on the Trump campaign and the wider presidential campaign. Giving briefings to this man is one step removed from giving briefings to Putin himself.

How and why Manafort came to provide such briefings, which must be unprecedented in US history, is a crucial question for the investigation. Given that this would stem, in part, from his previous dealings with the Russians, which could be the foundation of any relationship between him and Deripaska, there is yet another direct link here.  

Trump’s Own Predilections: Trump evidenced a soft spot for Russia early on in the Republican nomination battle. He hired Manafort when his connections to Russia were well known. To the extent that Manafort’s work with Russia was a driving force behind him being chosen as the campaign chairman, this represents another direct link between him and any investigation into collusion.

It is 100% acceptable for the Muller team to look into Manafort’s past dealings with the Russians as part of a wider investigation into collusion. In conducting this investigation, if any criminal activity on the part of Manafort should be discovered, then those criminal activities are fair game for Mueller – unless the FBI is supposed to just ignore crimes! 

The Virginia judge seems to have an alternate perspective – that Manafort’s previous dealings WITH THE RUSSIANS should have no place in an investigation into possible collusion WITH RUSSIA!!  

Taking his logic further, this suggests that he may think the FBI was supposed to just send Manafort a questionnaire asking something like, “Did you collude? If ‘Yes’, please check the box to the right. If ‘No’, please check the box to the left.”!

As well, and to get the judge’s point about only bringing charges to make Manafort “sing”, there is NO evidence that Mueller’s team has sought these charges to get him to testify against anyone. While such a deal may yet happen – and they happen all the time as this judge well knows - in these situations it would be Manafort himself who suggests a deal, not the FBI, as the FBI does not even know what testimony Manafort may have to offer!

Manafort is 100% free to meet these charges in court with no deal whatsoever. I suspect that once his challenge to Mueller’s mandate is over, he will flip, and once he flips he may go from challenging Mueller’s mandate to asking for FBI protection to avoid the always terminal “Putin Flu.”

Hold the Manafort!

Manafort continues to try to have the charges against him quashed. A judge in Virginia has rebuked Mueller for overstepping his authority for going after Manafort on charges he faces in Virginia bank and tax fraud in order to get leverage on Manafort to coerce him into blowing the whistle on Trump and crew. 

Ignore for the moment that Mueller is authorised to investigate "...any matter that arose or may arise directly” from the investigation, which would seemingly cover Manafort's other alleged crimes. In short, Manafort is a person of interest, so anything stemming from this fact, including his prior activities, is fair game. 

Ignore for the moment the Judge's borderline insane comment that Mueller is not really interested in prosecuting Manafort for the crime he is accused of having committed in Virginia - as if he, a decade's long veteran of the FBI and its former director is just playing games with the law.

Ignore for the moment the incredibly loaded suggestions that the Judge made, effectively accusing Mueller of playing a political game, and of trying to get Trump impeached.

Let's look at the idiocy in his comments about Mueller is using the charges to try to get Manafort to "sing".

WELL, DUH!  

Yes, Mueller is following a tried and true tactic of charging alleged criminals with crimes and then using that leverage to get them to “rat out” their partners in the commission of other, more serious offences. The judge seems very concerned about this tactic….like he has never heard of this before.

On that, maybe what is wrong is that Manafort’s prior conduct was such that he has left himself liable to charges of tax and bank fraud! Instead of complaining that Mueller may have overstepped his mandate, maybe the judge should be a bit more concerned about the prior activities of Mr. Manafort where a Grand Jury has seen enough evidence against Manafort to have the guy indicted!!

A few thoughts. 

As a rule, any prosecutor's mandate should include the implicit authority to pursue any prior crimes committed by those who are being investigated, in order to use leverage against accused persons in order to bring other such persons to justice. This is often the only way that all partners in an offence may be brought to justice. This approach stinks because the rat often gets off with little or no punishment at all. 

(Note - It is this reality, that guilty people walk in return for their testimony, that usually bothers the judiciary - the Judge in the case is acting like he is in a world turned upside down.)

As well, prosecutors should be able to pursue any criminal activity unrelated to their mandate, but that may be discovered in the investigation of the activities that led to that mandate. If people have a problem with these suggested rules, then don’t commit crimes!

If the judge’s implicit theory in questioning Mueller is correct, and the cops can’t use charges against someone as leverage for that person’s testimony against their partner in another offence, this could result in the overturning of literally thousands of previous convictions everywhere in the USA as this police tactic is as old as America itself.

And so, the theory that one alleged criminal cannot be coerced to testify against a partner in an unrelated offence is pure idiocy. 

This judge likely knows this is idiotic. If the judge rules against Mueller, I have to think that he will be appealed and overturned....and what does Mueller's personal motivations have to do with the breadth of his mandate anyway! 

But the damage to the investigation could be massive, not in terms of the charges - Manafort still faces charges in Washington, DC - but politically, where such a decision will strengthen Trump's claim that the investigation is just a "witch hunt". This political angle maybe why this judge is pursuing this line of argument.

What else do I suspect?

This judge has been on the bench since the time of Reagan.  I suspect that in all his time on the bench he has likely NEVER ruled that, when one Black man appeared before him and ratted out another Black man who was his partner in another crime, where this first man’s testimony had obviously been coerced by way of a promise that other unrelated charges would be dismissed or the penalty reduced, this judge has likely NEVER dismissed anything because of "prosecutor overreach" in those cases. You see, "prosecutor overreach" is a special type of "justice" reserved for one’s friends and one’s tribe.

How much darker can the lights dim on that shining city on the hill that we all used to look to in awe?

Orca's!

Did you know that Orca's are kind of slow but also kind of fast!  They are a type of Dolphin. Nobody knows why they hunt Dolphins while also being a type of Dolphin! From time to time, they will even eat their fellow Orca's!

Some Orca's live in the Arctic and some don't live there.

Like Cheetah's, Orca's live and hunt in groups! One strategy that they have is circling groups of fish in order to herd them together, then they dive into the group and scoop them up with their mouths!


NB - a joint blog crafted in conjunction with 6 year old daughter.
  

Cheetahs!

Did you know that Cheetahs chirp! They chirp in order that their babies can find them if they get lost! Lions are a real danger to baby Cheetahs...best to stay close to mama!

Cheetahs also stay in groups of about four. They do this to be safe, and to better hunt animals like Zebras.    

Have you ever gone for a run? You can't outrun a Cheetah! They are the fastest land animals on Earth! They can run over 100 km/h in short bursts! The only animal that is faster is the Peregrine Falcon...but, of course, they can fly!



NB - a joint blog crafted in conjunction with 6 year old daughter.

Obstruction Does Not Matter

The 49 questions released by Trump's team earlier this week (...they were not shared with his team, rather, they were recorded by Trump's lawyers as they discussed possible topics of examination with Mueller's team, and obviously released by Trump's team later on...) show what Mueller is really after in terms of the possible criminal liability of Trump and his team.  

One key possibility is that Mueller is looking at charging Trump with obstruction of justice relating to a private conversation with Comey, wherein he essentially asked Comey to drop the investigation of Flynn. The key here is the issue of whether or not Trump thought or knew Flynn had likely committed an offence before he asked Comey to back off. If he thought this or knew this, then asking Comey to back off would constitute obstruction of justice.

Setting aside how terrible a witness Comey would be in prosecuting such a charge - his anti-Trump bias would be laid bare at any trial, putting his credibility deeply into question - the fact is that no one cares about this possible charge, or any such charges. Ending all of this with only a series of obstruction of justice charges would be the political version of a plate of nothing burgers served at a banquet of total irrelevancy. 

More than that, if all that comes out of Mueller's investigation are some obstruction of justice charges, all relating to interviews and discussions with the FBI, then the investigation will have done significant damage to the reputation of that organisation, essentially confirming the "deep state" insanity that is being spewed by the Right in the USA, and others.

Russia sought to pervert American democracy and to bent it to Russia's own ends in 2016. This is the only issue that matters. 

Mueller's team has already laid charges against 13 Russians and three related organisations, which is consistent with collusion. All good, but if no charges are ever laid against any Americans related to this unprecedented intrusion into America's version of freedom - and it is inconceivable that the Russians did not get some help and did not make some deals as they sought to bend the American people to their will - that would be a disaster for the USA, as the miscreants will have got away with it.

Many in the Left press in the USA are crowing about obstruction after the release of the questions. They are missing the point - don't be diverted by the background noise.

I think Mueller and his team are laser focused on what matters here, which is why the first question is about the meeting where any collusion would have most obviously happened. 

This entire affair is about to reach a crescendo...time for the fat cat to sing.

 

Questions for Trump!

Mueller’s questions of President Trump have been released. They cover possible collusion, and possible obstruction of justice related to Flynn and Comey.

The first two questions and the sixth one tell all. 

Here are the first two questions…

1. When did you become aware of the June 9, 2016 Trump Tower meeting between Don Trump Jr and a Russian lawyer offering dirt on Hillary Clinton?

2. What involvement did you have in the communication strategy, including the release of Donald Trump Jr's emails about the meeting?

And here is the sixth…

6. What discussions did you have during the campaign regarding Russian sanctions?

As noted here previously, Mueller is laser focused on this meeting wherein three American nationals met a representative of a foreign state for the purpose of receiving hacked and stolen information from that state in order to subvert a US presidential election. This was likely in return for an undertaking to relax sanctions on that state once the person was elected. If this is proven, it would constitute a conspiracy against the USA.

The first question above is designed to bait Trump into lying about when he knew about the meeting. The Cohen and other e-mails likely outline that he knew well in advance, not only about the meeting, but about what was to be discussed. If he confirms that he knew in advance, this makes him a possible co-conspirator to a conspiracy against the USA. If he says he did not know until after the meeting, he will likely be shown by the e-mails to be lying thereby setting up an obstruction of justice charge. He needs to take the Fifth on this one.

The second question strongly suggest that Hope Hicks has already flipped and is already a state witness. 

The second question is another attempt to set Trump up. The fact is that the cover story for this meeting was crafted by Hicks and Trump himself on Air Force One. Anyone crafting that cover story is liable to be charged as an accessory after the fact to a conspiracy against the USA. If he says that he participated, he may be liable to be so charged. If he says that he was not involved, the e-mails and Hick’s likely testimony would presumably show that he is lying, thereby setting up an obstruction of justice charge. He needs to take the Fifth on this one as well.

The sixth question relates to the quid pro quo that Russia would have received for helping Trump’s campaign – the relaxation of sanctions. This was the very topic of conversation between Flynn and the Russian ambassador before he was caught in his lies about what he was doing, and resigned. If Trump says he discussed this, he is confirming the quid pro quo to the Russians and implicating himself in a possible conspiracy – assuming there was such a quid pro quo, which no one has acknowledged yet. If he says there was no conversation about this issue, this would likely be contradicted by Flynn’s testimony, thereby setting up an obstruction of justice charge. Trump needs to take the Fifth on this one too.

Mueller likely doesn’t care about Comey and obstruction of justice. The above noted questions show the true essence of his investigation.