The 2015 deal between Iran and, among others the USA, Russia, China and Europe is effectively over. The USA will restore full sanctions, and Iran will re-start its nuclear weapons program – the one it has denied ever having. The restoration of US sanctions would make doing in business in Iran very difficult for companies from European nations. They will scream, but they will fall in line.
The rationale for abrogating the deal has to do with Trump’s mistrust of Iran’s basic undertaking to stop its nuclear program, and with his concerns over their activities in Syria and Yemen, where they are seen as a destabilising force. It is very likely that at least some of the billions of dollars in Iranian assets that were freed up as part of the deal did in fact go to fuelling wars in these countries, supporting America’s opponents.
Calling anyone who is active in Middle Eastern wars and politics a “destabilising force” is a bit rich.
Every single major power in the region is bathed in buckets of blood and hypocrisy. Trump has looked at one of America’s enemies, which is getting the better of the USA in both of the above-mentioned countries, and he has decided to restart the economic war that America has been waging against them since 1979. The Iran peace deal was torn up essentially because there is no peace, and there never was. Iranian troops in Syria and on Israel’s northern border may be about to make that abundantly apparent to everyone by launching attacks ion Israel in response to Trump’s latest move.
But what about the nukes?
To me, it is inconceivable that Iran ever stopped trying to acquire nuclear weapons, even in spite of the agreement. The point would be to try to gain parity with Israel, which has had many such weapons for a very long time (officially denied). Since 1979, the Iranian leadership has made threatening to utterly destroy Israel a national staple. Many leaders there also officially deny the Holocaust. Hating Israel has become the primary distraction that is foisted on a population that tired of the regime a very long time ago.
What’s next?
The Europeans will try to save the deal to save the commercial agreements that many European countries stood to gain from in the coming years.
The price of oil will go up. American fracking will restart, and the price will come down.
Iranian soldiers in Syria will do “something” to respond to Trump’s announcement, likely by lashing out at Israel. Israel may invade Southern Syria to eradicate the threat. Israel definitely has plans to attack Iranian facilities that are working on their nuclear program. As warned in a previous blog, if they think the Iranians are getting close to a weapon, this will happen.
Within a year of the restoration of sanctions, demonstrations will break out in Iran again as the Revolutionary Guards, who control much of the economy, seek to continue to control a shrinking economic pie while normal people get squeezed more and more and demonstrate as a result. The regime will survive.
Individual Westerners who may be in Iran will be arrested on “trumped” up charges, and used as negotiating pawns by the Government of Iran. Like virtually everyone else in such circumstances, they will be repeatedly sexually assaulted and beaten, perhaps to death.
Russia will scream, and threaten. In fact, it has very little real leverage in the Middle East, but it may keep the assets it already has in Iran, like bombers, and dare the USA/Israel to attack and risk hitting Russians instead of Iranians. No matter what, Russia will not undertake to help Iran get a bomb…they are our opponents, but they are not crazy.
Saudi Arabia and Iran may engage in hostilities – likely an air campaign – following a range of incidents in Yemen between their respective protégés.
In short…the mess will continue to be exceptionally messy.
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