Manafort's Collusion??? A Judge's Delusion?

See previous blog...

...in asserting that Manafort’s previous alleged crimes are irrelevant to Mueller’s mandate, the Virginia judge is essentially asserting that there is no connection between Manafort’s prior conduct and an investigation into possible collusion.

Let's look at this...from an investigative perspective, what are the possible links between Manafort's previous conduct and possible collusion, with the idea being that any criminality found in that conduct should be fair game for Mueller if it is discovered as part of the investigation?

Maybe this…

Coercion Opportunity: Every cop looks for “the angle” that evil-doers may possess in their attempts to coerce and even extort otherwise law-abiding citizens. Manafort worked with Russia’s man in Ukraine for years, obviously as part of the decade’s long effort by Russia to undermine Ukraine and to bend it to Russia’s will. Any shenanigans that they may have committed in concert with Manafort would represent an opportunity to coerce him once he became Trump’s campaign manager.

On that, there is no question that the fact that Manafort left himself open to charges of bank and tax fraud, and money laundering (meaning he took illicit money from Russia’s stooge that he did not report), and to charges of failing to register as a foreign agent (meaning he worked for them without disclosing the relationship to US authorities), represented a coercion opportunity for these enemies of the USA. In that the Russians would have been well aware both that he was paid and that he was not a registered agent, and therefore would have had a chance to coerce him (i.e. “…work with us to subvert Trump or we rat you out…”), there is a direct connection here.

Like-Minded Opportunists: Manafort likely sees eye to eye with the those for whom he worked for a decade, especially on the issue of Ukraine the related sanctions that were imposed by the international community on Russia. It is obvious that this former arrangement represented the possible foundation for future illicit links between Manafort and the Russians on behalf of Trump. In fact, one of Mueller’s questions of Trump is precisely on this point.

Manafort’s prior conduct with the Russians may therefore constitute the starting point for a decade-long and expanding relationship between Manafort and the Russians of which the connection to Trump was just the latest chapter. There is also a direct connection here.

The Likely Quid Pro Quo: The Russians would have been seeking to influence Trump in order to get the sanctions that were imposed on that country following the illegal occupation of Ukraine relaxed. 

Manafort would have been intimately familiar with this Russian policy goal as he worked for their guy in Ukraine for a decade. There is an obvious policy linkage here between Manafort and the Russians. As Trump’s campaign manager, Manafort would have been in a position to make an illicit deal on his behalf. In fact, this was the very topic of conversation between Flynn and the Russian ambassador before Flynn’s disgrace in early 2017. 

Briefing the Russians: During the campaign and while he was Trump’s campaign chairman, Manafort briefed Oleg Deripaska – a Putin protégé and billionaire Russian – weekly on the Trump campaign and the wider presidential campaign. Giving briefings to this man is one step removed from giving briefings to Putin himself.

How and why Manafort came to provide such briefings, which must be unprecedented in US history, is a crucial question for the investigation. Given that this would stem, in part, from his previous dealings with the Russians, which could be the foundation of any relationship between him and Deripaska, there is yet another direct link here.  

Trump’s Own Predilections: Trump evidenced a soft spot for Russia early on in the Republican nomination battle. He hired Manafort when his connections to Russia were well known. To the extent that Manafort’s work with Russia was a driving force behind him being chosen as the campaign chairman, this represents another direct link between him and any investigation into collusion.

It is 100% acceptable for the Muller team to look into Manafort’s past dealings with the Russians as part of a wider investigation into collusion. In conducting this investigation, if any criminal activity on the part of Manafort should be discovered, then those criminal activities are fair game for Mueller – unless the FBI is supposed to just ignore crimes! 

The Virginia judge seems to have an alternate perspective – that Manafort’s previous dealings WITH THE RUSSIANS should have no place in an investigation into possible collusion WITH RUSSIA!!  

Taking his logic further, this suggests that he may think the FBI was supposed to just send Manafort a questionnaire asking something like, “Did you collude? If ‘Yes’, please check the box to the right. If ‘No’, please check the box to the left.”!

As well, and to get the judge’s point about only bringing charges to make Manafort “sing”, there is NO evidence that Mueller’s team has sought these charges to get him to testify against anyone. While such a deal may yet happen – and they happen all the time as this judge well knows - in these situations it would be Manafort himself who suggests a deal, not the FBI, as the FBI does not even know what testimony Manafort may have to offer!

Manafort is 100% free to meet these charges in court with no deal whatsoever. I suspect that once his challenge to Mueller’s mandate is over, he will flip, and once he flips he may go from challenging Mueller’s mandate to asking for FBI protection to avoid the always terminal “Putin Flu.”