Manafort Fails

Manafort's legal challenge to mandate of the Special Prosecutor has failed.

It was a civil court challenge. He is still free to challenge the ambit of Mueller's authority in criminal court, but one would think that if he thought he had any chance of winning this in the criminal courts, he would have brought his challenge there instead.

And so, with his trial starting next month, one would think that Manafort is now the prime target for a Big Flip. His loss in civil court may also have dire implications for Cohen and Hicks who would have benefited from judge-imposed limits to Mueller' mandate. 

Watch the action which may now unfold very quickly...

Cohen flip...then...

Hicks flip...then...

Manafort flip...then...

Indictments that will rock the world. 

I have to think that Trump will try to move against Mueller this week. Will Sessions and Rosenstein resign rather that fire him? What if Giuliani is the proposed replacement?

Veselnitskaya!

News!! Veselnitskaya works for the Russian State! Of course she does.

This matters because she was the person whom Kushner, Trump Jr., and Manafort met with in June 2016, for the express purpose of receiving damaging information about Clinton from the Russian state. 

The cover story is that she did not represent the Russian state, and that she only wanted to discuss her clients and adoption of Russian children = NO COLLUSION!  

That BS story was apparently concocted by Trump himself and Hope Hicks, as they received information about the meeting from Cohen. All of this is no doubt in Cohen's e-mail traffic which is now accessible by Mueller. Now we know that these men actually met a representative of Russia - the real story of what happened at that meeting has yet to be told...and the cover story is almost blown.  

The author of this blog watches RT = Russia Today - almost daily. In one interview on RT some months ago, Veselnitskaya actually admitted to handing these men a dossier of information about Clinton and the Democrats to review at that meeting, only to be told that these men were already aware of the information she had to share. In light of this, and confirmation that she works for Putin, we are now at the point where we can confirm that a representative of the Russian state actually did meet with and shared information with American citizens for the express purpose of subverting an American presidential election. 

Was there a deal where information was to be provided by Russia in return for the lifting of US sanctions once Trump was elected - the very thing Flynn was focused on in his dealings with the Russians? If yes, that would be tantamount to treason.

Some thoughts.

The Republican dominated Congressional enquiry into possible collusion confirmed yesterday that, in their opinion, there wasn't any. 

Isn't it rather convenient that we find out that Veselnitskaya was a Russian representative at this all-important meeting - the entire focus of Mueller's work, in my opinion - on the very day that the Republicans hang themselves out to dry with a deeply self-serving report that ties them to the Bad Ship Trump, and to everything else that is coming? The confirmation that she works for Putin was perfectly timed to deeply discredit this report the day it came out, as it apparently makes NO MENTION of this fact. This is like having an enquiry into how the Titanic sank that neglects to mention the iceberg.

Manafort is supposed to go to trial in May. Events will start moving very quickly now, both on Mueller's behalf and on behalf of the Trump Team. As noted in this space, expect Cohen, Hicks and Manafort to flip soon. If Trump is going to have Mueller fired, he will also do it very soon. Hold on to your hats!

Finally, this situation dwarfs Watergate in terms of its importance.  That was a scandal concerning nefarious dealings within the structure of American politics and democracy. This situation represents an attempt to sell out one's country for political gain. Nixon was many things, but a sell-out to American was definitely not one of them. 

And Trump? When the truth finally comes out, who will be left who believes that he didn't know?

A Giuliani Special?

Thought de jour....did Trump bring on Giuliani, not to strengthen his legal team, but as Mueller's replacement after he has him fired?

Mueller is very close - Cohen will flip, then Hicks, then Manafort, in that order. Then Mueller will have the witness he needs to charge Kushner and Trump Jr.  Trump must know this is getting close to an uncomfortable end point for him - Kushner and Trump Jr. charged with conspiracy against the USA means impeachment.

Replacing Mueller with Giuliani would challenge Republicans to say "no" to one of their favourites - America's mayor. This would muddy the waters just enough to allow Trump to rid himself of that meddlesome copper, without a constitutional crisis.  

What Giuliani would do is not clear. He may move ahead with the investigation, but it is also very likely that he would just shut the whole thing down, perhaps claiming that the Republican dominated Congressional enquiry found no collusion.

Point - the Left has underestimated Trump since the day he announced his nomination. Maybe time to start recognising that he is many negative things, but "stupid" isn't one of them.

Comey v Trump Redux

Well, Comey has shown his true colours, and they are shockingly partisan. 

He has a tell-all book coming out! He has compared Trump a mobster. He looked at his hair! 

He is on the talk show circuit and has suggested Trump is immoral and that voters should reject him. The Comey Show has been relaunched…all Comey, all the time!

Here is an earlier blog about about Comey. 

http://mewetree.blogspot.ca/2017/03/comey-v-trump.html

“More than that, this man is manifestly incompetent. He has noted that it is a standard operating procedure to not comment on ongoing investigations, and if any FBI agent had done what he just did in confirming the investigation into Russia and Trump, they would have been fired - by Comey. He has now gone public about ongoing investigations not once, but four times in the last 9 months, and has personally affected the outcome of a US Presidential election. Far from following the Golden Rule of "no comment", one is left wondering if he ever does anything else? He needs to go. Now.”

Civil servants are supposed to stay out of the political process, both when they are in office and afterward. In contrast, Comey simply cannot keep his mouth shut! When will he will decide to be a professional?

Comey was fired – one of the few good things Trump has done. Thank goodness he is no longer leading the investigation into possible Russian involvement in the last US presidential election. Imagine where this Publicity Hound would have led this investigation!

In contrast, what have you heard from Mueller? Try, nothing.  His silence is speaking volumes where Comey’s constant pronouncements only caused confusion.

Back to the dustbin of history with you!

What Is Mueller Doing?

Mueller is following a very simple script.

The crime he is investigating is the conspiracy against the USA that was committed when Manafort, Trump Jr., and Kushner met a representative of the Russian state for the purpose of receiving damaging information about Clinton that was acquired by that state, which was to be used to subvert a US presidential election.  

To prosecute, he needs evidence, and in this case he needs one of the three conspirators to take the stand, admit to the conspiracy, and finger the other two. That person is obviously Manafort.

The charges against Gates, the raid on Cohen's office, the pursuit of Flynn and Papadopoulos are all designed to circle the wagons on Manafort to get him to a point where it is clear that he will be convicted and spend years if not decades in jail. With that in hand, Mueller will do a deal in return for Manafort's testimony.  

When he files indictments against the president's son and son-in-law outlining, in detail, the conspiracy against the country, Trump will resign as his impending impeachment with wide Republican support will be obvious.

Mueller is almost there. 

The three things that need to happen are: 1) Manafort's challenge of the scope of Mueller's mandate needs to be defeated; 2) legal challenges of the raid on Cohen's office also must fail; and, 3) Hope Hicks needs to be charged and agree to cooperate with Mueller. 

This will all come to pass rather soon. I do not think Trump will be president when the primaries arrive in the fall.

New Poli-Sci Terminology!

Forget Monarchy, Tyranny and Democracy! 

Now, for the modern age, new terms for different types of governments!

Hippicracy – a form of government in which former hippies are in power (see also “Potocracy”, “Weedocracy” and Canada) 

Burpocracy – a form of government in which babies are in power (see also “Poohocracy” and “Cryocracy”)

Dude!ocracy – a form of government in which surfers are in power.

Mortocracy – a form of government in which the dead are in power (see also “Kaputocracy” and “Zombocracy”)

Mobocracy – a form of government in which Mobsters are in power (see also many countries in Eastern Europe and South America, and New Jersey)

Skirtocracy – a form of government in which women are in power in a deeply sexist country (see also “Babocracy” and “Laundrocacy”)

Golfocracy – a form of government in which the rich are in power (see also the USA)

Bollyocracy – a form of government in which people from the Indian subcontinent are in power (see also “Curryocracy”)

Vikocracy – form of government in which violent sea-born raiders are in power (see also “Piratocracy” and Somalia)

Coiffocracy – a form of government in which hairdressers are in power (see also “Do-ocracy” and France)

Sonocracy – a form of government in which sons of previous rulers are in power (see also Canada and North Korea)

McOcracy – a form of government in which fast food chains are in government (see also “Timocracy”, “A&Wocracy” and “Wendocracy”)

Churchocracy – a form of government in which words and language are in power (see also “Lincolnocracy” and “Obamocracy – First Term”)

10-ocracy – a form of government in which the beautiful people are in power (see also “Plastocracy”, “GinaLollabrigocracy” and “Bo-ocracy”)

Willocracy – a form of government in which strong men are in power (see also the UK from 1979 to 1990, and Germany)

Toronto House Prices

Fun with math…

If you bought a house in Toronto in early May, 2017, you were down 20% by late August – 12 weeks later.

If you bought a house in late August, 2017, you were up 10% by mid-October – 9 weeks later.

If you bought a house in mid-October, you were down 13% by mid-January – 9 weeks later.

If you bought a house in mid-January, you were up 17% by mid-March – 8 weeks later.

And if you bought 3 weeks ago, you are already down 4%.

Overall, since this time last year, you are down about 10%.

Does this seems normal to you!!???

Shorts!

I have been predicting a serious stock market pull back for about two and a half years now! This is based on a Shiller P/E and Q Ratio analysis.

The problem with this analysis has always been timing...they can tell you what will happen, but not when. What will be the trigger that tips the market over from Greed to Fear?

His name is Donald Trump. On Friday he advised investors to prepare for "pain".  Triggers don't come any better wrapped!

You have these excellent options if you want to short the markets, both on the TSX.

HIU.TO - for every 1% that the S&P 500 drops, you make 1%.

HFD.TO - for every 1% that Canadian banks drop - and they are guaranteed to drop if the US markets fall - you make 2%.

Of course, the opposite is also true! I have been on the wrong side of this short trade for a year...but I am very patient.

Do your own due diligence. HOLD ON!

The Essentials

The United States Government borrowed $621 Billion in the first quarter of 2018, in part to retire debt and as a result of the massive tax corporate tax cuts granted in January. This is about the same as the amount of cash borrowed to "save" the financial system in Q1 of 2008.

No government in human history has ever borrowed money like this....welcome to a world where Keynes Rules!

Was Keynes right?  

Here are two short YouTube videos (12 minutes) that almost perfectly encapsulate the essential argument between Keynes and Hayek about government's role in the economy, especially when faced with the need to confront down times. These are, quite simply, brilliant. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTQnarzmTOc

If we are wrong about Keynes after going "all in" for 10 years, there may be a rough decade to come!